Russia: Other Points of View

Stephen Cohen's Latest: Huffington Post

Huffington Post

July 7, 2015

Rethinking Russia: A Conversation With Russia Scholar Stephen F. Cohen

By Dan Kovalik

Last week I had the honor of interviewing Stephen F. Cohen, Professor Emeritus of Russian Studies and Politics at NYU and Princeton University, where for many years he was director of its Russian Studies program. Professor Cohen, a long-time friend of Mikhail Gorbachev, is one of the most important Russia scholars in the world and a member of the founding board of directors of the American Committee for East-West Accord, a pro-detente organization that seeks rethinking and public discussion of U.S. policy toward Russia.

Despite his impressive credentials and intimate knowledge of Russia and its history, you will rarely hear Cohen's voice in the mainstream press. And it is not for a lack of trying; his views, and those of others like him, are simply shut out of the media, which, along with almost every U.S. politician, has decided to vilify Russian and Putin, irrationally equating Putin with such tyrants as Adolf Hitler. As Cohen explains:

Even Henry Kissinger -- I think it was in March 2014 in the Washington Post -- wrote this line: "The demonization of Putin is not a policy. It's an alibi for not having a policy." And then I wrote in reply to that: That's right, but it's much worse than that, because it's also that the demonization of Putin is an obstacle to thinking rationally, having a rational discourse or debate about American national security. And it's not just this catastrophe in Ukraine and the new Cold War; it's from there to Syria to Afghanistan, to the proliferation of nuclear weapons, to fighting global terrorism. The demonization of Putin excludes a partner in the Kremlin that the U.S. needs, no matter who sits there.

RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP

by Patrick Armstrong

PUTIN'S DISAPPEARANCE. Western media outlets, governments and “experts” beclown themselves. Again.

CRIMEA, THE WAY HOME. Крым Путь на Родину. Here it is with English subtitles. Watch it: Korsun showed Crimeans what was coming, Berkut provided a seed crystal for self-defence and taught them how to recognise and suppress a “spontaneous” demo (go to 41).

WESTERN VALUES™ PART 1. Andrei Babitsky, once a certified hero journalist speaking truth to Putin, has been fired. It's not enough to be 99% anti-Putin, it must be 100% all the time. Read this.

NEMTSOV MURDER. Remember that? The investigators stick to their story: Dadayev did kill him; ordered by Adam Osmayev, commander of Jokhar Dudayev Battalion in Kiev forces, to embarrass Putin. This raises the possibility that the Charlie Hebdo connection was just the hook to get Dadayev to do it.

SNOWDEN. The German Vice Chancellor says Washington threatened to cease sharing intelligence if Berlin offered him asylum or allowed him to travel there. Deduction: if Germany was threatened, so was everyone else. We know that the Bolivian President's plane was forced down (so much for Obama's promise). Evidently, a lot of pressure was applied. One country refused to knuckle under. What do you suppose that has to do with current events?

RUSSIAN ECONOMY. Piece here from a rational observer. Not too bad but wait and see. Another agreeing.

QUOTE OF THE YEAR. The German Foreign Minister told US Secretary of State John Kerry “it’s far too early to pat our shoulders and take pride in what we have achieved” in Ukraine. Thousands dead and maimed, immense property damage, economic ruin, oligarch wars, neo-nazis, war talk. Much too early.

WESTERN VALUES™ PART 2. Turns out that the Clinton Foundation got lots of money from a Ukrainian oligarch. No effect on policy of course.

MINSK II. Kiev has broken it. Item 4 called for “a dialogue” “on modalities of conducting local elections”. Instead the Ukraine parliament passed a law saying that elections can only begin after the areas are returned to Kiev's control. No dialogue there. By the way, read the agreement: Moscow is required to do nothing, Kiev much. So when the WMSM tells you Moscow has broken it, as it will, ask yourself what part of the agreement it's broken. A resumption of war is likely, and the end result will be the same. But this time, I expect Moscow to really intervene (why bother with another agreement Kiev won't keep?) And, when it does, there will be no need for blurry satellite photos and reporters who forgot their smart phones. But, should the oligarch war get violent – see below – there will be no requirement.

OLIGARCH WARS. Have started. Still very murky but here is what we know. Ihor Kolomoysky is someone your media outlets have not told you much about: an oligarch, funder of many private armed formations, suspected of many atrocities (MH-17 shootdown?), he was appointed Governor of Dnepropetrovsk in the new oligarch-free European-style Ukraine and hailed as a patriot by the ever-accommodating WMSM. Parliament passed a law that would have reduced his control of certain oil companies. He sent armed men to take over two head offices. Poroshenko said no more private military organisations would be tolerated. Yesterday he dismissed him as Governor of Dnepropetrovsk. Not over yet; in theory Kolomoysky has a lot of armed forces that answer to him. WMSM and State Department spin will be entertaining to watch.

“DRAGOON RIDE”. The brainchild of the excitable General Hodges, a US army column will travel through several east European countries: “to assure those allies that live closest to the Bear that we are here”. Ludicrous: a cavalry squadron, an insignificant light force, will probably only make people nervous. There should be some amusement as it proceeds through the Czech Republic: the locals have been warned not to throw vegetables at it and the Czech Army will escort it. Moscow will only be more contemptuous. And that's assuming there are no embarrassing breakdowns, lapses in discipline, traffic accidents, protests etc.

“PUTIN'S INFORMATION WAR”. No wonder the West is having trouble selling its story: “The product they’re selling is not very attractive overseas”. “if you're going to say someone is a poisonous liar who traffics in conspiracy theories, then you should show that. That the Post doesn't seem to feel the need to do so either means the evidence isn't there, or that the burden of proof is very low when it comes to official enemies”. Western governments wouldn't be whining unless they knew their story was failing.

INSIDE PUTIN’S HEAD: The Crisis in Russia and Ukraine and Worst-Case Putin Scenarios

by Gordon Hahn

www.gordonhahn.com

Introduction

The present Russian-NATO proxy war in Ukraine along with the Russian-Western economic cold war could destabilize Russia’s political metastability and even topple Putin and his system. Assume for a moment that Putin really is pushed into a corner. Imagine Putin’s foreign reserves begin to run out cutting into his popularity, and/or he loses his battle with the West over Ukraine because of Russia’s economic weaknesses in conditions of falling oil and natural gas prices and Western sanctions. Political and economic crises mount, and the foundations of his system begin to shake. Putin the winner has become Putin the disappointing loser.

The regime elite begins to split; some defect to the opposition. The latter begins to mount successively larger and more turbulent demonstrations led by a Maidan-like mix of democrats, angered by economic dislocation, and ultra-nationalists, disgruntled by a failure to annex or protect the Donbass. All this reaches a crescendo – a perfect storm – in the runup to, during or just after the 2018 presidential election. It is around elections when corrupt authoritarian systems are often challenged because of limited levels of public trust in the electoral process. The emperor has no clothes.

In such a situation how would Putin and his political order likely react? What would his options be and which among them would he most likely choose? In short, what would Putin try to do to salvage his rule?

Although Putin is not an ultra-nationalist dictator or would-be imperialist, he is likely to err on the side of increasingly authoritarian and expansionist measures to protect his power and system, which he regards as necessary to achieve the growth of Russian power. Russian President Vladimir Putin is determined to maintain Russian influence in Ukraine. Therefore, if pushed into a corner in Ukraine, internationally, or at home, Putin is likely to crackdown on domestic opposition and foreign economic and political elements inside Russia and undertake high-risk foreign policy measures like the Crimea annexation in order to save face. If Putin overreaches, the West overreacts, or a ‘black swan’ event occurs at such a pivot point, war with the West – perhaps a second Crimean war – would be at hand.

Continue reading 

U.S. ROLE IN THE UKRAINE CRISIS AND ITS CONSEQUENCES

COMMENTARY

by Gordon Hahn

One can perhaps understand that the US wants to support Kiev against Russia. I do not agree with this policy, and believe the US helped cause the crisis and should show leadership in resolving it rather than sitting by silently and letting it deepen or worse contributing to its escalation. But can anyone supporting our support for Kiev explain to me why we have not demanded that Kiev rein in its forces so they observe some minimal care for civilian lives and arrest Right Sector and other terrorists deliberately killing civilians and refusing to submit to state no less civilian control? Shameful. George Washington is rolling over in his grave or better President and General Eisenhower, who led the Western fight against German fascism. As the son of a West Pointer, after decades of loving my country, I can say with sadness that I am ashamed at the failure to seek a resolution. What vital American interest does Ukraine being in NATO and the EU serve, in particular, when a the jihadi threat grows and Russia can play an important role in fighting it. Rather than bickering and killing Ukraine, we should be preparing joint, full-scale military operations with Russia, Ukraine, and other willing states against IS and AQ in the Levant. When NATO member Turkey is overrun we will rue the day we allowed Cold War inertia, the NATO bureaucracy, and State Department/USAID democracy-promotion zealots to turn our heads away from the real threat.

The US Needs To Recognize Russia’s Monroe Doctrine

REPRINTS

By Ted Galen Carpenter

Cato Institute

U.S. leaders once understood and accepted that strong powers would insist on a security zone and broad sphere of influence in their immediate geographic region. Indeed, as just a middling power, the United States boldly asserted such a policy with the proclamation of the Monroe Doctrine in 1823. The key passage warned conservative European monarchies: “We should consider any attempt on their part to extend their system to any portion of this hemisphere as dangerous to our peace and safety.”

Yet, U.S. policymakers now denounce as illegitimate similar bids to establish even modest security zones by other major powers. That point is especially evident in Washington’s conduct toward Russia. 

The United States and its NATO allies officially repudiate even the concept of spheres of influence, contending that it has no place in the modern international system. Condoleezza Rice, President George W. Bush’s secretary of state, made that point explicitly in response to Moscow’s 2008 military intervention in Georgia. She scorned the notion of Russian primacy along the perimeter of the Russian Federation as the manifestation of “some archaic sphere of influence.” Secretary of State John Kerry expresses similar views. In November 2013, he even declared that “the era of the Monroe Doctrine is over.” Following Russia’s annexation of Crimea and the Kremlin’s unsubtle support for secessionist forces in eastern Ukraine, Kerry asserted that “you don’t in the 21st century behave in 19th century fashion” by invading a neighbor.

Gorbachev's Full Speech in Germany Nov 8, 2014

Gorbachev's full speech during the celebrations of the 25th Anniversary of the Fall of the Berlin Wall. Each paragraph to the end is loaded with honesty and policy experience.  Sharon

The Huffington Post

November 8, 2014

My Appeal to Our Leaders and to All of Us: Let Us Think, Propose and Act Together

By Mikhail Gorbachev

Former President of Soviet Union, Nobel Laureate

The following speech was delivered on November 8, 2014 at the New Policy Forum symposium in Berlin. 

I am pleased to welcome all the participants and to see among them both the veterans of our Forum and some new faces. I expect all of them to make a contribution to serious and constructive dialogue which is so necessary now.

Our conference is being held simultaneously with the celebrations of the 25th anniversary of the fall of the wall that divided Germany and Europe. I would like first of all to congratulate the Germans, and all of us, on the anniversary of this truly historic event. 

Historic shifts that seem unexpected to contemporaries may later appear inevitable, preordained. But let us recall the time when it was all happening and how tumultuous and urgent the process of change was. Its outcome -- the peaceful unification of Germany -- was possible only because it had been prepared by great changes in international politics and in the minds of people. 

THE ATLANTIC "COMES OUT"

Friends,

At last our serious American publications and authors are "coming out of the closet."  The situation in Washington policy has come to such a dangerous place that those who kept their silence are refusing to do so any longer. I don't agree with all that is in this September 22 article, but in the main, as far as the history and consequences go, do agree wholeheartedly.  Surely as others come forward, it will force a change in current Russia policy.

Sharon

 

The Atlantic

September 22, 2014

The Seething Anger of Putin's Russia

By Jeffrey Tayler 

MOSCOW-The standoff between Russia and the West over Ukraine is a relatively recent development, but it is sickeningly familiar to anyone who grew up in the Cold War decades. It is, most of all, uniquely ominous: When nuclear-armed America and Russia quarrel, peace and life as we know it are threatened the world over. The risks of errors, miscalculations, unintended escalation, and culture-based misunderstandings loom large-especially when mutual trust has been shattered and little remains of a working relationship between Washington and Moscow.   

Such risks are especially high right now. NATO and NATO-allied forces are conducting military exercises in western Ukraine, while Russian-backed separatists and Russian troops remain entrenched in that country's east. Last Wednesday, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu warned that "the situation in Ukraine has escalated sharply and the presence of foreign military has increased in the immediate vicinity of our borders," while announcing the deployment of the first of six stealth submarines to its Black Sea fleet. This came just days after Russia's successful submarine-based test launch of a Bulava ICBM-a long-range nuclear missile designed to hit targets in the United States. Russia's $700-billion defense buildup, scheduled to be completed in 2020, continues unabated.  

Russia Sanctions Report and India's Perspective

Friends,  while we Americans get one type of media coverage regarding the sanctions being leveled at Russia, other nations are seeing the situation from different vantage points.  Below is an example from India––but before that a few words about what Russian entrepreneurs (our alumni) and other younger Russian men and women said this past two weeks about their country and the sanctions.  

SANCTIONS/QUIET CONFIDENCE:  The general outlook of Russians I spoke with is one of quiet confidence …. saying that sanctions will turn out good for Russia in the long run––that Russia must become self sufficient––remarking that Russia became infatuated with foreign products in the 1990s.  At that time they felt Russia didn't need to manufacture high-end products, that they could purchase them from other countries.  However, the situation has changed.  Today production has become the "in" discussion wherever one goes.  The sanctions have helped bring this about. Several Russians remarked that they hoped the sanctions lasted for three years or more, since that would give Russians sufficient time to learn to manufacture formerly imported items themselves. The Russian government is offering financial support to entrepreneurs who are ready to move into consumer production.  

MANUFACTURING:  During a Petersburg newspaper interview a couple of days ago, I mentioned a proposal I'd developed to bring the sewing industry back to America's shores.  Immediately I was asked if I would speak with StPetersburg authorities about restarting Russia's apparel industry.  The appointment was quickly made, and I found myself talking with Russians who have the connections to make these types of possibilities happen.  Who knows where it will go?  In the short time between the interview and our appointment, they had checked out my history and opened discussions telling me what they knew about the apparel manufacturing business I started in 1974 in Texas (and is still in existence). The information is online.  They were aware of our CCI apparel incubator in St.Petersburg which operated and trained many young clothing designers for 13 years––they had known of it since inception. 

The U.S. Needs Russia - the Baltimore Sun

Friends, 

The dire situation in Ukraine is beginning to bring voices of sanity out into the public forum. This is great news, for so long we only heard one side of the US-Russia conflict. Here even a former FBI and NSA executive makes better sense than anything we read or hear in mainstream news.

Sharon

  

Baltimore Sun

August 19, 2014

The U.S. needs Russia

Instead of alienating Russians, we should be pulling them in

By Jerome Israel

Jerome Israel is a former senior executive at NSA and the FBI. His email is [email protected].

The U.S. needs Russia. This may sound peculiar coming from a person who spent 25 years at the NSA, almost half of those fighting communism. But our approach to Russia since the end of the Cold War has been unimaginative and aggressive. Politicians in Washington put on their Cold-War glasses any time Russia makes noise. It's time to archive those in the Smithsonian.

Many notable academics agree that our policies toward Russia are flawed, but my conclusion - that we need Russia - is derived from the kind of work we mastered at NSA: carefully listening to and analyzing communications, in this case what Russians have said openly on social networks and in private conversations with me during a recent trip to Russia.

AMERICA STARTED THIS UKRAINE CRISIS

REPRINTS

William Pfaff  is the author of The Irony of Manifest Destiny, published in June 2010 by Walker and Company (New York) -- his tenth and culminating work on international politics and the American destiny. He describes the neglected sources and unforeseen consequences of the tragedy towards which the nation's current effort to remake the world to fit America's measure is leading. His previous books and his articles in The New York Review of Books, The New Yorker, and his syndicated newspaper column, featured for a quarter century in the globally read International Herald Tribune, have made him one of America's most respected and internationally influential interpreters of world affairs 

America Started This Ukraine Crisis

by William Pfaff

Paris, August 7, 2014 -- I find it very disquieting that so few among the West European and American commentators on the Ukraine crisis, private or public, seem concerned that the United States has started this affair, and that it is not inconceivable that it may end in a war.

Worse yet, Washington’s demonization of Vladimir Putin has been so successful in the American press and public, and its secrecy about the American role in Kiev, has left the public in the United States and in NATO Europe convinced that this has all been the result of a Russian strategy of aggressive expansion into Ukraine, and not a bungled and essentially American attempt to annex Ukraine to NATO and the European Union, and to undermine the domestic political position of President Putin — which all has gone badly and dangerously wrong.

The Ukrainian coup d’état in February was prepared by Washington. Why else were the State Department official in charge of Europe and Eurasian Affairs, Victoria Nuland, together with officials of the European Union and a number of intelligence people present, in company with the “moderate” Ukrainians programmed to take over the government after the planned overthrow of the corrupt (but elected) President Viktor Yanukovych? Even President Obama, in Mexico for a “summit”, was waiting to supply a video feed speeding the overthrown Mr. Yanukovych on his way, and congratulating the “democratic” victors.