Russia: Other Points of View

Reflections on Hill's and Gaddy's "The American Education of Vladimir Putin" (The Atlantic, 16 February 2015)

http://gordonhahn.com

February 17, 2015

Reflections on Hill's and Gaddy's "The American Education of Vladimir Putin" (The Atlantic, 16 February 2015)

Fiona Hill and Clifford Gaddy have provided a superb analysis of Russian President Vladimir Putin's alienation from America and its foreign policy. In most accounts nowadays Russia's actions are interpreted shorn of context. "Russia invaded Georgia." "Russia invaded Ukraine." "Putin criticized America." "Russians see the U.S. as an Enemy." Routinely, almost unanimously, Russia is portrayed as acting spontaneously in a vacuum with reference to the world around it. Its policies and actions are not responses to Western policies and actions. They are carefully thought out plans designed to defeat the West, regardless of what the West may or may not do. 

For example, in the 2008 Ossetian war, Russia is said to have begun the war. What preceded Russia's invasion - Georgia's massive bombing of South Ossetia's capitol of Tskhinval(i) with inaccurate GRAD missiles, the killing of one hundred civilians and 19 Russia peacekeepers in the GRAD bombings, and Georgian troops' invasion of South Ossetia and crazed rampage through Tskhinval(i) - is left out of the picture. Similarly now, accounts of "Russia's war in Ukraine" and "Russia's invasion of Ukraine" leave out prior events: . Moreover, the nature of Russia's intervention in the Donbass is overstated and 'evidence' is often shoddy and even falsified by Kiev and taken as gospel truth without question by US government and media.

RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP

by Patrick Armstrong

New NWO. The Chinese foreign minister made it plain: “We believe that Russia has opportunities and knowledge to overcome the current problems in the economy. The Chinese-Russian relations of strategic partnership are at a high level, we are always supporting and helping our friend. If the Russian side needs it, we shall offer all possible support we may have”. Why is China doing this? Self-interest: if Washington can bring Russia down, China knows it’s next on the list. Meanwhile, China is moving into Latin America. Washington and Brussels have united two powers that can crash their economies at will (at, admittedly, large – but not fatal – cost to themselves.) 

Truth leaks out. Despite the best efforts of Western governments and their tame media, bits of truth are slowly – but not quickly enough – leaking out. The head of Stratfor described it as “the most blatant coup in history”. As to neo-nazis (long pooh-poohed as a Putin fantasy – here, here and here for example), even the Washington Post admits “But now several of these units, especially those linked to oligarchs or the far right, are revealing a dark side.” Smaller publications can report more reality (Christianity Today or Salon) while the larger, like the NYT, still adhere to the Party Line. Here is a careful piece about neo-nazis and here a compendium on the subject. Read these and decide for yourself if this is a trivial phenomenon. Ignore the election result argument, these people prefer to create fear and compulsion: here, here, here, here. (What would the NYT or Economist say if there were a campaign for “real” Russian names, torchlight parades shouting “Glory to Russia” or guards at Christmas crèches to protect them from Obama?) Even the tame Western “human rights” organisations are starting to notice who’s shelling civilians. “Merkel should emphasize the need for Ukraine’s Defense Ministry to issue clear and specific orders... not to use certain explosive weapons in areas populated by civilians.” The notion that the defenders are destroying their own families’ housing is a little preposterous, isn’t it? Especially when Poroshenko thinks it desirable their children hide in basements. Everybody has a phone camera and a Web link now; hard to control the story.

Military etc. An amendment to Russia’s military doctrine states NATO expansion and its buildup on Russia’s borders is a threat: not really new, just that Moscow has stopped hinting. Meanwhile, as if to remind Washington – again – that Russia is not Libya or Afghanistan, a third SLBN was handed over to the Navy: these three boats carry 16 Bulava missiles each, each with 6 independently targetable warheads. 288 warheads in new, modern, tested systems. Then a land-based ICBM was successfully tested. We are informed that there are now 295,000 professional soldiers in the Armed Forces with the plan to add another 55,000 in 2015. Meanwhile, the heavy Angara A-5 rocket successfully launched a dummy payload. Russia kept its world-wide lead in space launches with 38. 

Day late and a dollar short. “Because we think it is important that Russia... and NATO are able to work together on important issues, like for instance, fighting terror.” Brilliant idea 15 years ago, good idea 10 years ago, OK idea 5 years ago, today, too late: you can’t call Russia an aggressor and ask for cooperation in one and the same statement.

Chechnya. Take ten minutes to watch this. A lot of things are happening you’re not told about.

Eurasian Economic Union. First suggested ten years ago by Nazarbayev, it took effect on 1 January. Comprising Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Armenia (joined the next day) it is a free trade zone. We will see how effective it proves to be, born as it is in difficult times. Russia cheekily suggest the EU join: “You really think it is wise to put so much political energy into a free trade agreement with the United States when one has a much more natural trade partner next door right in the neighborhood? At least we don’t treat our chickens with chlorine”. 

Ukrainian nuclear power station. Something is happening at the Zaporizhia nuclear power station. There have been some shutdowns – more than one, it seems. Rebel sources say radiation levels have spiked. There may be a connection with nuclear fuel from Westinghouse; dangerous says Moscow. This could be quite serious and there is no reason to believe anything Kiev says about it.

RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP

by Patrick Armstrong

Sochi. The anti-Sochi campaign is in full swing. (The Guardian gets everything in including the coming lack of snow about which it has some mystical foreknowledge). We have not just the homosexual stuff (a German reporter somewhat surprised to get the nonplussed view of the owner of one of two Sochi gay bars) but also the sad history of the Circassians. I have noticed pieces here and there concluding that Russia must “acknowledge its violent history in the region” or something. That’s odd, I don’t recall huffy op-eds calling on Canada to acknowledge how it came to possess the site of the Calgary Olympics or the USA the Salt Lake City site (opportunity there for two “acknowledgements”). What a load of pretentious rubbish! The cruel fate of the Circassians is hardly unknown in Russia and the authors of these pieces seem to be equally unaware of who they are (not Turkic. Quite the reverse in fact) but also that there are plenty of Circassians still living there. And that some are returning. This is all part of the current thrust of anti-Russia propaganda. As to corruption, these expensive Olympics (but the Russian Audit Chamber says direct Olympic expenses are more like $6-7 billion) may well exceed the Olympic norm but a lot has actually been built. While the site is ideal, the decayed Soviet infrastructure was not. Here is a list in Russian of what has been created in exchange for the 50-some billion – much more than just sports facilities: roads, bridges, power plants, tourist facilities to name a few. Moscow appears to be using the Olympics as an opportunity to make its Black Sea coast into an up-to-date tourist attraction. A website written by two Westerners, one of whom lives there shows many of these new things. There are going to be a lot of surprised Westerners; but then, Westerners depending on their media for information have been surprised by Russian reality for two decades now.

RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP

by Patrick Armstrong

Snowden. Putin made an offer that brilliantly solved everybody’s problems: Snowden could stay in Russia but he would have to keep his mouth shut. But Snowden rejected it: he will not keep quiet. But he seems to be running out of options on where to go: thus far no other country has volunteered. So he may have to take Putin’s offer yet. I believe Putin when he says there has been no collaboration between Snowden and Russian intelligence structure: I doubt very much that Snowden has anything to tell Spetssvyaz that it does not already know. Meanwhile I can’t see that this behaviour benefits the USA much.

Corruption. Last Sitrep I wondered whether the anti-corruption drive had bogged down with too many cases on the go to properly finish any one. But here is some evidence that the investigators are still working away: another facet of the OboronServis case has been exposed. And a brand-new case of embezzlement at the Baykonur Space Centre.

White collar crime. The Duma, after Putin’s request, has overwhelming passed an amnesty for white collar crimes. It will apply to first-time offenders convicted under financial laws who have compensated their victims and did not use violence. It will come into effect over the next 6 months and is expected to apply to about 13,000 in prison and another 70-80,000 under other penalties. Somewhat overdue: too many of these cases were cooked up as a bizness struggle. In another pro-business move, the Duma has voted to lift foreign ownership restrictions on small and medium-sized businesses.

U.S.-RUSSIA COOPERATION IN THE WAR AGAINST GLOBAL JIHADISM

Russia, the Caucasus Emirate, Cloaks and Daggers: Repeating the Need for Increased U.S.-Russia Cooperation in the War against Global Jihadism

By Gordon M. Hahn

Misinformation (and disinformation) in US mainstream media and academia regarding Russia and their Caucasus Emirate (CE) mujahedin, continues to poison the U.S. perspective on jihadism in Russia’s North Caucasus.

As I have been warning and documenting for years, the rise of the Caucasus Emirate mujahedin poses a threat to U.S. national and international security. The CE is, and has been, a leading ally in the global jihadi revolutionary alliance.

The Boston Marathon attack was just one more piece of evidence of this, given a series of CE plots previously uncovered in Europe and Eurasia. CE leaders have stated explicitly that they are doing everything they can to build the global caliphate. CE propaganda consists exclusively of Al Qa`ida (AQ) and other global jihadi teachings.

Nevertheless, U.S. journalistic treatments have not even mentioned the CE–– despite the fact that it is now being confirmed by a few intrepid journalists, U.S. investigators, and Russian intelligence sources that Tamerlan Tsarnaev was inspired by, made contacts with, and was seeking to join the CE’s most potent Dagestani network (the Dagestan Vilaiyat (DV), when he traveled to Dagestan in January-July 2012). However, he either was talked out of it by Salafists there, or he lacked sufficient time on his visa to remain until the CE conducted its background check on him. He then decided to return to the U.S. and joined the jihad by carrying out an attack here (Irina Gordienko, “’Bostonskii vzryvatel’ bylo davno zaryazhen,” Novaya gazeta, No. 47, 29 April 2013; Simon Shuster, “Exclusive: Dagestani Relative of Tamerlan Tsarnaev Is a Prominent Islamist,” Time, 8 May 2013; Simon Shuster, “Older Boston Suspect Made Two Trips to Dagestan, Visited Radical Mosque, Officials Say,” Time, 22 April 2013; David Filipov and Bryan Bender, “Bombers could have been thwarted, Keating reports,” Boston Globe, 31 May 2013).

RUSSIA AND THE ARAB WINTER: FOREIGN AND DOMESTIC DILEMMAS

COMMENTARY

by Gordon M. Hahn

As the Arab 'Spring' continues to devolve into an Islamist winter for Moscow and the U.S., both find themselves increasingly on the horns of multiple dilemmas. Russia's dilemma is rooted in its previously forced bet in favor of the Islamic world's Shiite populations over the Sunnis––which has been anchored in Russia’s trading partner and periodic support for Iran, a Shia nation. Unfortunately for the Kremlin, this bet was staked out just as a wave of revolutionary Sunni Islamism/Jihadism was rising across the ummah (Arabic for “nation” or “community,” but not necessarily a common ancestry or geography).

Nowhere is this dilemma better demonstrated than in Syria, where Moscow has been lending diplomatic support to Iran's chief ally, the minority Alawite (Shia) regime of Bashar al-Assad.

A geostrategic calculus also influences Russia’s reticence about the downfall of the Assad regime. Syria has been Russia’s chief ally and weapons buyer in the Middle East for decades––and in addition provides the only warm water port in the region for the Russian Navy. Unfortunately for Moscow, which initially hoped the Syrian crisis could be resolved through negotiations or restabilization, the Assad regime appears to be doomed––and any new regime coming next is likely to seek revenge, especially if it is an Islamist one (which most likely it will be). This means the next leadership could be worse than the former.

WHY RUSSIA STILL BACKS ASSAD

REPRINTS

by Angrei Tsygankov

Moscow Times

28 October, 2012, Issue 5002

Russia's approach to the Middle East is based on a worldview that is fundamentally different from the one shared by the West.

The currently dominant discourse in Russia is that of a culture that incorporates both Western and Eastern influences while preserving its own distinctiveness. As supporters of the so-called "civilizational approach", they insist on protecting Russia's distinct values, and their foreign policy debate is increasingly framed in cultural categories.

The Kremlin has identified two prominent threats to its vision of Russia as a civilization at the intersection of the Western and Islamic worlds. The first of these threats is radicalized and militant Islam. Russian analysts and politicians often speak of special relations with Muslims but differentiate between moderate and radical Islamists. President Vladimir Putin has expressed his respect for traditional Islam, saying that it is integral to Russia's religious, cultural and social fabric. Putin has also made a point of separating moderate Islam from "all forms of religious intolerance and extremism."

ISLAM, ISLAMISM AND POLITICS IN EURASIA REPORT, NO.61, 2 OCT 2012

By Gordon M. Hahn, Senior Associate, Russia and Eurasia Program, Center for Strategic and International Studies

• IIPER’S DATA ON THE CE ATTACKS
• AND JIHADI-RELATED VIOLENCE IN RUSSIA
• DURING THE FIRST HALF OF 2012 

* IIPER is written and edited by Dr. Gordon M. Hahn unless otherwise noted.  Research assistance is provided by Anna Nevo, Casey Mahoney, Daniel Painter, Elizabeth Wolcott, Jerry Davydov, Kevin Butts, Michelle Enriquez, Olga Volcsko, and Stephanie Barko.  IIPER accepts outside submissions.

To access the full report, click here  Download Hahn_IIPER61

TANDEMOLOGY 2.0: PUTIN’S RETURN, MEDVEDEV’S DECLINE, AND TANDEM SPATS

COMMENTARY

by Gordon M. Hahn

The recent spate of spats between President Vladimir Putin and Prime Minister Dmitri Medvedev again raises questions about the political relationship between the members of Russia’s ruling tandem. On September 25, Putin reprimanded the government for failure to produce a viable budget and three government ministers for failure to carry out his presidential orders.  The criticism was seen as a slap in Medvedev’s face.

In the next days Medvedev seemed to hit back.  Speaking at a business forum in Sochi, Medvedev referred to a 2008 incident when then prime minister Putin promised to “send a doctor and a prosecutor” to the billionaire owner of steel and coal producer Mechel who failed to attend an industry meeting with Putin because of illness.  At the time, Medvedev called for officials to stop “scaring businessmen.”  Medvedev now revived the disagreement, saying: “I think that in modern Russia, if we talk about business, unequivocal orders are being made in different ways, let's say, in proposals to send a doctor in for a cure. Russian business knows what I mean ... I wish we (would) start learning to live in a different way.”

ISLAM, ISLAMISM AND POLITICS IN EURASIA REPORT NO.60, 31 AUGUST 2012

By Gordon M. Hahn

Senior Associate, Russia and Eurasia Program, Center for Strategic and International Studies

RUSSIA

• THE RISE OF ISLAMISM AND JIHADISM IN TATARSTAN: The Rise of Jihadism
• 7^TH SUICIDE BOMBING OF 2012 KILLS DAGESTAN’S LEADING SUFI SHEIKH
• CE AMIR UMAROV ISSUES TWO VIDEOS, APPOINTS DAGESTAN VILAIYAT AMIR/VALI
• AUGUST 6^TH SUICIDE BOMBING IN GROZNY, CHECHNYA – 4^TH AND 5^TH SUICIDE BOMBINGS IN RUSSIA IN 2012
• RUSSIA’S SIXTH SUICIDE BOMBING OF 2012 OCCURS IN MALGOBEK, INGUSHETIYA

CENTRAL ASIA

• KAZAKHSTAN: NINE ALLEGED TERRORISTS KILLED IN SPECIAL OPERATION

EUROPE

• TWO ALLEGEDLY AL QA`IDA-TIED CHECHENS AND ONE TURK ARRESTED ON TERRORISM CHARGES IN SPAIN
• INGUSH TERRORIST ARRESTED IN BULGARIA FOR ATTACK IN INGUSHETIYA

MIDDLE EAST

• SON OF DECEASED CHECHEN TERRORIST RUSLAN GELAEV REPORTEDLY KILLED FIGHTING IN SYRIA

To access the full report, click here Download Hahn_IIPER60