Russia: Other Points of View

RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP

by Patrick Armstrong

RUSSIAN ATROCITIES!!!! The Americans attack an MSF hospital in Afghanistan and lie about it. (The lack of response to their demand for an international inquiry is "embarrassing" says MSF. Today's gruesome details.) The Saudis attack an MSF hospital in Yemen and lie about it. Negligible! Russians bombed four hospitals in Syria! no, it's seven! no, it's twelve! Sources? The usual GONGOs, including the ever-compliant Bellingcat, and mumbles from the State Department. Not ours, says MSF, nor ours says Red Cross. Oh well, push a new one out there. The usual tame sources shriek that Russia is killing civilians. That didn't work the last time – the fakery was swiftly exposed.

MORE PROPAGANDA. "This is the first time that Russia has publicly acknowledged that Assad may have to go" or "Changing stance?". Nope – unchanged since June 2012: "This issue has to be settled by the Syrians themselves." It's the West that's changed its line on "Assad must go": UK, USA. In fact, the recent Vienna declaration is everything Russia wanted: another Russian diplomatic victory (or victory for realism and coherence, I prefer to say). Which probably explains the rash of atrocity stories above.

WASHINGTON ON SYRIA. Incoherent. We are somehow supposed to think that US special forces have been put into Kurdish areas and will be supported from Turkey by US aircraft at the same time that Turkey is attacking the Kurds. How does that work? What does NATO do if the Turks bomb Americans? Does that make sense? Is your local MSM outlet asking any questions? No wonder Jordan has signed on to the Russian effort, Iraq is baulking and Afghanistan is interested in Russian help. Meanwhile Canada is pulling out of the US led effort and the UK is wobbly. Watch the video – do you see any plan there that you would want to follow? On the other hand, Washington has been trying to get rid of Assad for years. Why? "Barrel bombs" we're told.

MOSCOW ON SYRIA. Coherent. Assad visited Moscow – the whole thing was announced after he returned home. Contrary to silly claims from the NYT – "chilly reception"! – it's clear it was a series of important meetings with Russia's relevant leadership. Moscow's position is coherent and consistent: 1) to destroy the state structure of Syria will create chaos that only Daesh will profit from (vide Libya); 2) Assad is the legitimate head of the Syrian government; 3) if the Syrian people choose someone else in the future, Moscow will work with him; 4) support the forces on the ground that actually fight Daesh.

PLANE CRASH. The latest theory, based on the "black boxes", is that the crash was caused by an engine explosion. But what caused that?

IN CASE ANYONE HAD FORGOTTEN... Two ICBM tests and two SLBM tests this week.

RUSSIA INC. Has the Russian economy turned the corner? This astute observer argues that it might have.

UKRAINE. Local elections were held and I am amused to see that they have received little coverage in the WMSM. That's of course because they didn't go the way they were supposed to. A rather low turnout, even if you believe the official numbers. Yatsenyuk's party had so little support it didn't even run, Poroshenko's party didn't do that well, the nazis (in this case Svoboda. Don't like "nazi"? well see J8 for the European Parliament's view before fashions changed) did well in the west and the Opposition Bloc did well in the east. Better not have elections in Mariupol at all. The country is every bit as divided as it always has been. Are we in the Night of the Long Knives, or Thermidor? The security police have arrestedthe leader of one of the nazi battalions and there is a story that the leader of another has been taken. Some sort of investigation of the Maidan shootings is happening which could implicate another. Was there an assassination attempt on the Prosecutor General? Stay tuned. But I'm sure you will all be happier now AFP has told us President Poroshenko is richer than before.

GEORGIA. There is a phone recording of Saakashvili plotting a coup in Georgia; Tbilisi has opened a criminal investigation. PM Garibashvili is not amused. The recording is apparently real although Saakashvili blusters that "the Russians" touched it up.

MEANWHILE, PIVOTING TO ASIA. Washington did its sailpast. Watch this short video of the Chinese response; do you think Beijing is joking? I don't. Something to think about: a Chinese attack submarine closely followed a US carrier last month.

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Ottawa, Canada Websites: ROPV, US-Russia, Russia Insider

DELUSIONAL US 'GROUP THINK' ON SYRIA, UKRAINE

Friends, once again Robert Parry, one of America's finest investigative journalists, hits the nail on the head.

Mainstream media (MSM) are wholly in step with whatever Washington's "short-term" decision makers create for policy.

These short "term-ers" demand and get near total compliance from the NYT, Washington Post, the Wall Street Journal and TV talk shows. This means Americans are saturated with only one point of view 24/7, since the channels and mega papers are stepped down to every large-to-midsized-to-tiny channel or newspaper throughout America  which then repeats the same byline, the same slant.  Knowing and respecting both sides of the Ukraine/Russia issue is critical to our national survival. 

This drumbeat for war with Russia is the only war America is in that could extinguish all life on this planet.  

Make no mistake, friends,  this is hugely dangerous, and our short-term decision makers are sailing right up to the brink with their war drums as though it's a skirmish they can easily take care of.  The media conveniently pay no attention to excellent Internet news sources, our superb investigative journalists who have broken huge stories in the past, or analyses from countries other than Europe and UK (who are obligated to Washington's short-term policy makers), even when it's detrimental to their own countries.  Joe Biden seemed a bit amused to admit that, "We had to embarrass European leaders to get them to go along with the sanctions."  How awful!  I'm embarrassed for my country.

THE DESTRUCTION OF UKRAINE

by Patrick Armstrong

The Ukraine that existed last summer, was a space on the map whose boundaries were drawn by Lenin, Stalin and Khrushchev. Not, perhaps, the people you'd pick to draw the boundaries of your country, but that's what happened. In this space lived people who certainly regarded themselves as “Ukrainians” but also people who regarded themselves as “Russians”, “Tatars”, “Greeks”, “Hungarians” and all the other nationalities recognised by the Soviet system. The Russian Empire of 1917 had possessed much but not all of the territory known as Last Summer's Ukraine. In particular, St Petersburg possessed most of central Ukraine as well as south and east Ukraine (a territory known as Novorossiya when the Empress Catherine conquered it from the Ottomans). The west was then part of the Austrian Empire. But, after the collapse of the Russian Empire and the First World War, it was taken by Poland. After the attack on Poland in 1939 Stalin incorporated it into the Ukrainian SSR. Some small territories were taken from Romania and added as well. Krushchev's addition of Crimea rounded out the territory the world recognised as independent Ukraine in December 1991.

In simple terms, the present effect of these completely different histories of the parts of Last Summer's Ukraine is that the south and east tend to look towards Russia while the west looks towards Europe and the centre has a certain ambivalence. And so, if you wanted to keep Last Summer's Ukraine together, there was a central prohibition, a “First Rule of Ukraine”: “do not attempt to force a choice between east and west” or, more plainly, “do not demand that one half of the country swallow what only the other half wants”. Violate that rule and the whole thing could tear apart. Ukraine could stay together so long as, for example, no government in Kiev tried to make Ukraine a formal military ally of Russia. Such an idea would be welcomed by many in the east and south but would be anathema in the west and, to a lesser degree, in the centre. In short, the only choice for a stable Ukraine would be neutrality, or, more grandly, to proclaim itself a bridge between Russia and NATO. Likewise an exclusive trade agreement with Russia would be welcome in the south and east but unacceptable in the west. So, again, the correct stance, the one that would preserve Ukraine, would be to advocate trade agreements with both. The “bridge” concept again. Everyone who knows anything about the realities of Ukraine knew this. I can't stress this enough: this sort of understanding would have been Lecture 1 of Ukraine 101¹. So long as one half did not have the other half's preference shoved down its throat, the two halves could rub along together. But that is precisely what the West did. Twice. The West pushed the NATO option in the so-called “Orange Revolution” of 2005 and pushed an exclusive trade deal with the EU in 2013. If one wanted to tear Ukraine apart, two more explosive issues than military alliances and exclusive trade could not be found. When last Summer's Ukraine survived the first Western attempt to blow it up, the West tried again², this time with trade.³

MEDVEDEV’s CORRUPTION FIGHT PICKS UP STEAM IN 2011

COMMENTARY

By Gordon Hahn

Despite claims that nothing is changing in Russia and, more specifically, that Russian president Dmitry Medvedev’s anti-corruption drive is going nowhere, the fact is that the campaign is picking up steam and has a chance of making a real dent in Russia’s massive, endemic corruption.  Let’s begin with the least impressive but by no means insignificant of the recent steps.  In his May press conference at Skolkovo Medvedev called for a relaxation of the technical inspection of automobiles during the registration process; something that would reduce GIBDD presonnel’s opportunities for demanding bribes.  By the end of the month, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin had prepared a government resolution waiving the requirement for new automobiles to be inspected upon their initial registration or during their first year on the road (Aleksandra Smarina, “Voyazh Medvedeva na ammita utonul v potoke informatsi o Putine,” Nezavisimaya gazeta, 27 May 2011).  This deprives the auto inspection department of a key opportunity for soliciting bribes; another step in Medvedev’s anti-corruption drive.

More importantly, the anti-corruption fight is generating a purge of high-ranking officials across the board, from the MVD, undergoing its own internal reforms, to the prosecutor’s office to the military-industrial complex to the military.  Thousands of MVD personnel are going through an attestation or re-certification for corruption and incompetency, leading to the removal from office of numerous high-ranking MVD generals.  In January Deputy Chief of the Moscow MVD’s Main Administration Vladimir Chugunov was fired (“Medvedev uvolil nachal’nika kadrovogo upravleniya GUVD Moskvy,” Nezavisimaya gazeta, 26 January 2011).  The terrorist suicide bombing at Domodedovo Airport allowed Medvedev to dismiss from office four top MVD officials, including Maj. Gen. Andrei Alexeyev, head of the transport police for much of western Russia, including Moscow, the chief of the transport police division at Domodedovo Airport and two other MVD officers (Jim Heintz, “Russian president fires police chief after bombing,” Associated Press , 26 January 11).

RUSSIA’S MVD REFORM: THE NEW LAW ‘ON THE POLICE’

COMMENTARY

by Gordon M. Hahn

In January of 2010 ROPV readers were informed of the scale and scope of President Dmitrii Medvedev’s plans for overhauling the massively corrupt Ministry of Internal Affairs (MVD) (see Gordon M. Hahn, “Medvedev’s Thaw Hits at Russia’s Lack of Rule of Law,” Russia Other Points of View: Russia Media Watch, 12 January 2010). 

The first stage of that process is now well underway.  Russia’s new law “On the Police,” the first step of the MVD reform, was signed by President Medvedev earlier this month and comes into force on March 1st.  Other stages of the reform will include the reform of the police training and education system which also includes training on human rights.  There will be a complete ‘attestation’ or ‘recertification’ of all MVD personnel with the goal to reduce the most corrupt and incompetent MVD policeman and officials; a procedure codified in this law as well (Article 54.3-5).  Also, President Medvedev is to issue a “Decree on Issues Concerning the Assessment of the Work of Russia's Interior Ministry Agencies,” which will apparently be a performance review of departments and other aspects of the MVD system.  Below we assess the new law in terms of its value as the new fundamental law governing the MVD, and as an indicator of progress in the overall reform process begun by President Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin. 

RUSSIA 2010: SUMMING UP THE YEAR FOR THE THAW AND THE TANDEM

COMMENTARY

by Gordon M. Hahn 

Again, for the third year in a row Russia saw modest progress in the continuing thaw under the ruling tandem of President Dmitrii Medvedev-Premier Vladimir Putin.  

Some of year 2010’s gains in domestic policy include:

• the return to allowing opposition demonstrations (even in the heart of Moscow);
• another round of toughening anti-corruption legislation;
• adoption of a new law ensuring multi-party representation at the level of municipal government;
• adoption of a new law requiring the release of terminally ill suspects from custody;
• adoption of a new law that will make the Federation Council a body of elected representatives from regional or municipal legislatures;
• the subordination of the siloviki (MVD, FSB, and prosecutors) to regional governors;
• considerably more open and broader discussion in state media;
• approval of a major economic de-nationalization (privatization) process to begin year 2011;
• and the beginning of another de-Stalinization campaign of sorts in education and culture reminiscent of Mikhail Gorbachev’s use of a similar campaign to push his own liberalization program ‘perestroika’ in the late 1980s. 

Perhaps the most important of these policy changes – permitting opposition rallies in central Moscow – held forth despite the ultra-nationalist riots on Moscow’s Manezh Square and in other Russian cities on December 11^th and the fact that the federal election cycle is approaching.  Days after those riots, Russian liberals, public figures, and others, including Kirov Governor Nikita Belykh, gathered in the largest demonstration since the thaw began nearly three years ago and the new policy of routinely permitting rather than refusing opposition demonstrations began this past summer. 

RUSSIAN FEDERATION WEEKLY SITREP

by Patrick Armstrong

NATO-Russia. Lots of things are rumoured: see this in the Independent for example. On a personal note I feel a lot of schadenfreude here. When I was working for the government, I wrote many briefing notes saying that NATO should listen to what Moscow was saying and take it seriously; not necessarily agree, but seriously think about it. But no, NATO light-heartedly (not my expression but George Kennan’s) went ahead and expanded here, there and everywhere, broke its promises, enjoyed its adventures, all under the complacent assumption  that Russia was negligible and its objections could be dismissed as mere self-interest, or spun as threats. No more. NATO has discovered that it really needs Russia in Afghanistan.  But, NATO has to learn that words have meanings: the Secretary General cannot say, one week, that Georgia will be a member of NATO one day, and on another that it wants to have a “true strategic partnership” with Russia. Georgia, under present management, is not acceptable to Moscow: there are reasons why this is so. NATO must make the, apparently difficult, attempt to understand those reasons. Nonetheless, the movement is encouraging: after all, NATO and Russia share the essential element of a military alliance – which is common enemies.

RUSSIAN FEDERATION WEEKLY SITREP

By Patrick Armstrong

Russia Inc. The Finance Ministry announced that the budget deficit in 2009 was 2.3 trillion Rubles (US$78 billion – about 25% less than anticipated); GDP declined nearly 8%; the Reserve Fund holds about US$60 billion and the National Welfare Fund about US$95 billion. The IMF has raised its estimate for Russia’s GDP growth in 2010 to 4.25% from 4% and estimates that inflation will be 6%. Rumours of Russia’s economic death have been exaggerated: indeed these numbers look rather better than the IMF’s estimates for either the Euro Area or the USA. Medvedev’s calls for Russia to be treated as a major player in the world financial system don’t look so implausible today.

JIHAD AND COUNTER-JIHAD IN RUSSIA, MARCH 2010: TRIUMPH AND TRAGEDY

ISLAM, ISLAMISM AND POLITICS IN EURASIA REPORT, No.12, April 2010

by Gordon M. Hahn

Monterey Institute of International Studies

March 2010 saw both triumph and tragedy in Russia’s was against jihadi terrorism.  The first weeks of March saw Russian federal and local Caucasus security agencies score a series of major victories in the war against jihadism and the Caucasus Emirate (CE) mujahedin.  As reported in IIPER, No. 10, on March 3rd they killed the CE’s leading operative Said Abu Saad Buryatskii (Aleksandr Tikhomirov) along with seven other mujahedin.  Approximately another 10 were captured.  It was also reported that surrounded by FSB commandos Buryatskii bade farewell to his fellow mujahedin and spent his last minutes true to form: filming a farewell sermon on his cell phone.[1]  No such video has yet to appear on the CE sites.

To access the full report, please click here Download KAVKAZJIHAD_MonTREP_IIPER_12_7Apr2010_MarchEvents

RUSSIAN FEDERATION WEEKLY SITREP

by Patrick Armstrong

People power. For years Russian big wheels have been whizzing down roads ignoring the rules confident that, should there be an accident, their connections will help the police to come to the correct conclusion. As it were. In Irkutsk in December, the daughter of the regional election committee chairwoman ploughed into two pedestrians. No charges were laid. A couple of weeks ago, the car of a LUKoil executive killed two people in a head-on collision; the victims were blamed. This was the last straw and a strong public opinion movement sprang up. Two observations (in addition to the obvious one) here. First, these protests are made possible by “new media” – YouTube, social networking, cellphone cameras. Second, an organisation of car owners called Freedom of Choice has mobilised in other cases and stands ready to go into action quickly. This is what is called civil society. For those who are immediately going to interpret this as signs of disquiet with Medvedev, the protesters are entirely in step with his pronouncements. But it is also a challenge for him to put his efforts where his mouth is; as a public appeal to him said: “If you take the case under your personal control and punish the person responsible for the crash, you will prove your commitment to the fight against corruption.” Yesterday Medvedev ordered an investigation. The Irkutsk campaign did force the police to re-consider.