Russia: Other Points of View

RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP

HOW WILL YOUR LOCAL MSM OUTLET AVOID REPORTING THIS? Russian Defence Ministry briefing: ISIS is largely funded by oil smuggling, the oil goes into Turkey, Erdoğan and his family are involved (no evidence given but coming?). Thousands of trucks in and out of Turkey. The Russians claim to have cut the business in half. Watch it – the lines of tanker trucks – hundreds and hundreds – have to be seen to be believed. And we're supposed to believe that the all-seeing US satellite system missed them? Actually, here are the US excuses for not hitting them. As a reminder that the WMSM doesn't tell you very much, here's the former head of the US DIA saying that the White House made a "wilful decision" to ignore warnings about ISIS. Of course, given the Paris wakeup call, the WMSM just might report this. Watch and see. BUT – and a big but: see below.

ON THE OTHER HAND. The Russian videos purport to show hits on oil storage tanks. But look at this screenshot from the briefing: the upper left and upper right look like grain silos or something while the lower left looks like a water purification plant. This, on the other hand, does look like an oil refinery: note the flames and black smoke you'd expect from a petroleum fire. (Thanks to Petri Krohn for noticing what I did not). Blowing up anything that's round and claiming it's oil storage somewhat weakens the Russian case. To put it mildly. The lines of trucks are compelling, though. Note Turkish flag at 0:28.

PUTIN SPEECH. Annual address to the Federal Assembly. Haven't gone through it in detail; much on terrorism of course but also the usual emphasis on domestic matters – especially food production. The words "Ukraine", "Kiev" and "Donbass" do not appear in it. Which is rather interesting, isn't it?

CRIMEA. Finding their food blockade ineffective at persuading Crimeans to return to the embrace of Kiev, Right Sector and "Tatar nationalists" blew up power lines into Crimea and drove off repair crews. Fortunately there was no catastrophic aftereffect on nuclear power plants in Ukraine. However, Moscow foresaw this and has been building electricity connections. The first bit is up and running and 80-90% of the demand should be covered by the end of the month. The full provision is scheduled for May. Meanwhile, here is a video showing the progress of the bridge.

SOROS. The Prosecutor General's Office put George Soros' Open Society Foundations and Open Society Institute Assistance Foundation on the list of undesirable NGOs. This observer argues that Moscow lacks self confidence. I disagree: he and others managed to blow up Ukraine which was pretty placid in the 1990s; all societies have fissures which can be pried open with enough money and effort.

HOLLANDE. He met Putin and here are the joint press statements. Seems to me that he's pretty close to Putin's strategy: "France is ready and willing to work with Russia... common objective, which is to fight terrorist groups, above all ISIS... agreed... step up the exchange of intelligence... intensify strikes against ISIS and coordinate them... make sure that our air strikes concentrate on the Islamic State and terrorist groups." On the other hand: "it goes without saying that Assad does not have any role to play in the future of his country." But, step by step: politicians seem to be unable to openly change their minds.

SYRIA. Several sources claim that Russia is preparing another airfield for use. More S-400s?

TULSI GABBARD. Check her out: a refreshing change in the war-crazed wasteland of US politics. She's co-sponsoring a bill to stop the "illegal" war on Assad.

DIA SCANDAL. To summarise: the former head is criticising the US Administration's policy; 50 analysts have complained their reports on ISIS were modified to look more optimistic; even the NYT notices.

TURKEY. Moscow's response will cost Turkey billions. Putin's executive order: tourism, trade and employment greatly cut. Turk Stream has just been suspended. S-400 SAMs are now in place in Syria (and Armenia?) and Russian fighters will carry AAMs and probably soon have fighter cover. What Ankara had better not hope is that Moscow "sells" some S-400s to Damascus, "trains" some operators who shoot down the Turkish aircraft that routinely fly into Syria. I do not believe that Washington put Ankara up to shooting it down. First the luke-warm response from NATO and second the absence of monovoiced WMSM coverage. Kerry has told Ankara to seal the border to stop the oil smuggling and Carter said the majority of Turkish strikes in Syria hit Kurds. Not, I think, full-throated support.

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Ottawa, Canada Websites: ROPV, US-Russia, Russia Insider

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Patrick Armstrong

RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP

by Patrick Armstrong

RUSSIAN ATROCITIES!!!! The Americans attack an MSF hospital in Afghanistan and lie about it. (The lack of response to their demand for an international inquiry is "embarrassing" says MSF. Today's gruesome details.) The Saudis attack an MSF hospital in Yemen and lie about it. Negligible! Russians bombed four hospitals in Syria! no, it's seven! no, it's twelve! Sources? The usual GONGOs, including the ever-compliant Bellingcat, and mumbles from the State Department. Not ours, says MSF, nor ours says Red Cross. Oh well, push a new one out there. The usual tame sources shriek that Russia is killing civilians. That didn't work the last time – the fakery was swiftly exposed.

MORE PROPAGANDA. "This is the first time that Russia has publicly acknowledged that Assad may have to go" or "Changing stance?". Nope – unchanged since June 2012: "This issue has to be settled by the Syrians themselves." It's the West that's changed its line on "Assad must go": UK, USA. In fact, the recent Vienna declaration is everything Russia wanted: another Russian diplomatic victory (or victory for realism and coherence, I prefer to say). Which probably explains the rash of atrocity stories above.

WASHINGTON ON SYRIA. Incoherent. We are somehow supposed to think that US special forces have been put into Kurdish areas and will be supported from Turkey by US aircraft at the same time that Turkey is attacking the Kurds. How does that work? What does NATO do if the Turks bomb Americans? Does that make sense? Is your local MSM outlet asking any questions? No wonder Jordan has signed on to the Russian effort, Iraq is baulking and Afghanistan is interested in Russian help. Meanwhile Canada is pulling out of the US led effort and the UK is wobbly. Watch the video – do you see any plan there that you would want to follow? On the other hand, Washington has been trying to get rid of Assad for years. Why? "Barrel bombs" we're told.

MOSCOW ON SYRIA. Coherent. Assad visited Moscow – the whole thing was announced after he returned home. Contrary to silly claims from the NYT – "chilly reception"! – it's clear it was a series of important meetings with Russia's relevant leadership. Moscow's position is coherent and consistent: 1) to destroy the state structure of Syria will create chaos that only Daesh will profit from (vide Libya); 2) Assad is the legitimate head of the Syrian government; 3) if the Syrian people choose someone else in the future, Moscow will work with him; 4) support the forces on the ground that actually fight Daesh.

PLANE CRASH. The latest theory, based on the "black boxes", is that the crash was caused by an engine explosion. But what caused that?

IN CASE ANYONE HAD FORGOTTEN... Two ICBM tests and two SLBM tests this week.

RUSSIA INC. Has the Russian economy turned the corner? This astute observer argues that it might have.

UKRAINE. Local elections were held and I am amused to see that they have received little coverage in the WMSM. That's of course because they didn't go the way they were supposed to. A rather low turnout, even if you believe the official numbers. Yatsenyuk's party had so little support it didn't even run, Poroshenko's party didn't do that well, the nazis (in this case Svoboda. Don't like "nazi"? well see J8 for the European Parliament's view before fashions changed) did well in the west and the Opposition Bloc did well in the east. Better not have elections in Mariupol at all. The country is every bit as divided as it always has been. Are we in the Night of the Long Knives, or Thermidor? The security police have arrestedthe leader of one of the nazi battalions and there is a story that the leader of another has been taken. Some sort of investigation of the Maidan shootings is happening which could implicate another. Was there an assassination attempt on the Prosecutor General? Stay tuned. But I'm sure you will all be happier now AFP has told us President Poroshenko is richer than before.

GEORGIA. There is a phone recording of Saakashvili plotting a coup in Georgia; Tbilisi has opened a criminal investigation. PM Garibashvili is not amused. The recording is apparently real although Saakashvili blusters that "the Russians" touched it up.

MEANWHILE, PIVOTING TO ASIA. Washington did its sailpast. Watch this short video of the Chinese response; do you think Beijing is joking? I don't. Something to think about: a Chinese attack submarine closely followed a US carrier last month.

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Ottawa, Canada Websites: ROPV, US-Russia, Russia Insider

RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP

by Patrick Armstrong

10 DAYS THAT CHANGED THE WORLD. They did, don't you think? Gilbert Doctorow describes the interlocking parts of Moscow's actions: coalition assembled, the UNGA, the military moves, the demonstration that Russia has full-capacity armed forces, Ukraine.

SYRIA. Clearly the big story.Others have commented: I recommend Dyer, Escobar and Buchanan. But there are plenty more. All I have to add are a few observations. Re the "Russian invasion" of Ukraine and grainy photos of combine harvesters or whatever somewhere or other, this is what real satellite photos look like: colour, detail, precision. Russia's intervention has exploded the US fantasy of "moderate opposition" (but weren't there only four or five of them?) and its incoherent two-horse scheme (watch McCain lump "barrel bombs" and beheaders together as if Assad and ISIS were the same at 6:51). As to Russia being "doomed to fail", its strikes are coordinated with the forces on the ground that are actually fighting ISIS; Syrian forces have begun an offensive. And with Iraq too. Egypt as well. Israel even? Is Iran coming? There are suggestions that both Iraq and Afghanistan would welcome Russian assistance because ISIS has only grown stronger in the year of the US-led operation, despite its claims. Moscow prepared the ground, did everything legally, assembled a coalition and moved quickly and decisively. Not Putin vs Obama, or "standing up to Putin", but a direct challenge to the New American Century crowd; "the most powerful, good and honorable nation... the exceptional nation": "Do you at least realise now what you have done?" (Вы хоть понимаете теперь, что вы натворили?).

WESTERN VALUES™. No sooner had the US and its allies complained about "civilian casualties" (on faked evidence) than US forces struck a hospital in Afghanistan. The American story is now in its fourth iteration but still no response to the three main charges – that they knew where the hospital was, that there was no firing from it, that the hospital was repeatedly struck after MSF had called on the US authorities to stop. Meanwhile, on Russia's "violation of Turkish airspace", look at this screen from a Western source: the green are NATO aircraft in Syria. Whose violations there? Turkey has been violating Syria airspace for some time. And here's a Deutsche Wellereport on the ISIS supply route from Turkey.

PAST AND PRESENT. Wikileaks tells us that Qadaffi was willing to talk but Clinton was not willing to listen. The former Defense Intelligence Agency head says the Administration made a "wilful decision" to ignore its warnings about the growth of ISIS; nor does he believe the "moderate opposition" exists.

INTENTIONS. Don't know what Russia's intentions are? Stop speculating and read Putin's speech. A clue: "we can no longer tolerate the current state of affairs in the world" (что терпеть складывающееся в мире положение уже невозможно). He's been saying this since the famous Munich speech and now he's found a time and place to act. He seems to have a lot of support in the West, too – see below. Read Xi's speech as well, not as blunt, but the same message.

THE WORM TURNS. Read the comments on this story, this story, this story and this story. The first two condemn Russia's actions, the second two approve. But, in all cases the readers' comments are overwhelmingly supportive of Russia's attacks. I have suspected for a while – why else all the talk about "Putin trolls", Putin's "information war" and the closing of comments sections? – that an increasing proportion of the Western audience sees through the spin and propaganda. Syria may burst the dam. The last words go to Paul Craig Roberts: "By telling the truth at a time of universal deceit, Putin committed a revolutionary act".

RT. Remember when RT was "Putin's weapon of mass deception" and a challenge that had to be countered? Well now it fakes its numbers and is insignificant. Hard to keep up with the story, isn't it?

RUSSIA INC. I highly recommend this from the perceptive Mr Mercouris on how Russian economy measurements miss something important. While the USA undeniably leads his super trio, how much longer can it with so much of its manufacturing out-sourced?

CORRUPTION. Is a big problem in Russia and no one hides it. I've said before that I'll believe a serious anti-corruption effort is really happening when someone in an office next to Putin's or Medvedev's is taken away. It almost happened with Serdyukov but he seems to have got away with it. Ditto the Luzhkovs. Well, maybe something more significant than busting traffic cops is beginning. We'll see.

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Ottawa, Canada Websites: ROPV, US-Russia, Russia Insider

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Patrick Armstrong

RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP

by Patrick Armstrong

MH17. Before you agree that Russia's veto of the UN tribunal idea is evidence that Putindunnit, you should know two things. First, there already is a UNSC resolution calling for "full, thorough and independent international investigation" and "those responsible for this incident be held to account". It is UNSC Resolution 2166 and dates from a year ago. Who needs another? Second, that one of those calling for the new resolution – Australia's Julie Bishop – condemned Russia a year ago for refusing to accept responsibility for the shootdown. Clearly a kangaroo court (as it were) was intended. As we have seen before with Milosevic and Qaddafi. Rather than stunts, Washington should first show us its "mountain of evidence" as a group of retired US intelligence professionals demand.

SANCTIONS. The Russian counter sanctions on food are having a beneficial effect on local producers as this Austrian TV report shows. Here's a visitor's report of what he found in St Petersburg and environs. Here's what Americans are told: "Je suis Charlie et je suis fromage". Costs to the EU are still being estimated: Belgium US$500 million; Germany €600-800 million; overall maybe €5 billion. Or even €100 billion when everything is calculated. In light of Stratfor's observation that Washington is determined to keep Germany and Russia apart, one wonders which Washington wants to hurt. For the effect on Russia, Reuters reports the IMF's take: "The fund estimated the immediate effect... had been to wipe between 1pc and 1.5pc off GDP, rising to 9pc over the next few years... also forecast "weak" economic growth of around 1.5pc annually in the medium term." Does that make sense to you? Or is it an estimate of what might have been?At any rate, however you spin or measure it, this is not "tatters".

RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP

by Patrick Armstrong

EID AL-FITR. Interesting video that shows Russia is also a rather Muslim country. The Chief Mufti supports Putin, by the way. (For those of you who think it's some evil scheme cooked up by Orthodoxy).

MH17. Watch this BBC interview. Shootdown by Buk "most credible scenario" but also looking at Buk fired "from another region, another place" and scenario of "an air-to-air missile." Can only mean 2) Buk fired from the Kiev side or 3) Kiev aircraft shot it down. Somebody's lost control of the narrative. We are told by a Ukrainian official that the report will be published 10 August but not made public. (If scenarios 2 and 3 are really being considered, why is Ukraine even part of the investigation?) Retired US int professionals again call on Washington to release what it has. Simply put, here's all you need to know: the absence of evidence is the evidence.

UKRAINE: THE WAR. The rebels have announced a pull-back of weapons under 100mm calibre (Minsk II requires 100mm+ weapons moved out of range). Why? I think the Saker is correct: to show they are abiding by Minsk II; but it's also a trap. OSCE observers corroborate that at least some weapons have been withdrawn and they are off to confirm full withdrawal. But they have also said – I don't recall this before – that Kiev forces are shelling civilians: "In both cases, the SMM was able to conclude the direction of fire to have been from the area of government-controlled Pisky (11km north-west of Donetsk) and Pervomaiske (17km north-west of Donetsk)." So much for the US Ambassador's retort "How do you know? Were you personally present for this?". Or RL's reprinting Kiev claims that the rebels are shelling themselves.

UKRAINE: TRANSCARPATHIA. Ethnically mixed, many former owners, little enthusiasm for Kiev regime. Smuggling: tobacco and borders. Right Sector people got into a fight in Mukachevo; Poroshenko ordered the Interior Ministry to restore order (perhaps a regime split on how to handle it? Certainly no one is very popular in Ukraine today.) Right Sector ran for cover and now the place is full of Interior Ministry forces and small-scale fighting. Stay tuned. (Of course, maybe Putindunnit.)

UKRAINE: RIGHT SECTOR. A headline to remember: "Kiev Forced to Fight Its Own Fascist Militias". After Mukachevo, Right Sector declared mobilisation, demanded resignations all round and set up blockposts here and there. There was a sizeable demonstration in Kiev on Tuesday; Yarosh demanded a referendum on confidence in the government and an end to obedience to it. Analyses of the situation from Gordon Hahn, Alexander Mercouris and Nikolai Petro. BBC actually notices. Many of us have been awaiting the next stage of the Ukrainian demolution (a new word coined by Miquel Puertas: demolition + revolution) – Nazi Spring, as it were. We are a step closer. But it's extremely fluid: witness what Yarosh is saying now. A weak government to be sure but Right Sector may not have the street power it thinks it has.

UKRAINE: NEIGHBOURS. Veryinteresting article by a Polish writer who contemplates where the burning fuse is going: a Ukrainian "Banderland" is not in Poland's interests and (so much for NATO and the EU) "if the West needs Poland, it's only as a battlefield for a possible conflict with Russia"; maybe better if Ukraine were partitioned. Other Poles are concerned about the glorification of Bandera and the OUN; and a movie is on the way. Hungary has cleared its throat, so to speak, about Hungarians living in Transcarpathia. The violence in Transcarpathia has made neighbouring countries strengthen their borders – after all the armed Right Sector people are hiding somewhere nearby. Meanwhile, Schengen members are cutting down on issuing visas to Ukrainians. Remember "the end of history"? Neither do they.

???!!! Did Washington supply Stingers to Kiev? Anyway, the Donbass fighters now have them. This may make sense in some universe, but not the one we're living in.

KYRGYZ REPUBLIC. Several people have suspected an American attempt to start a "colour revolution" there – to many the choice of mission head is diagnostic. In this respect the announcement of a "human rights" award to a dissident was protested by the government. When the US did nothing, the PM denounced the 1993 assistance agreement with the USA.

IRAN DEAL. We'll see. Many in the USA want to denounce it and that may happen. In which case who will follow Washington and who won't? It's good (and proper) that Obama thanked Russia, but I don't expect much. As to European missile defence being cancelled, let's ask Putin. But undeniably a major event.

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Ottawa, Canada Websites: ROPV, US-Russia, Russia Insider

RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP

by Patrick Armstrong

SAME AGAIN. The USA's new National Military Strategy finds threats everywhere: "the most unpredictable I have seen in 40 years of service". Russia, Iran, North Korea and China are specifically named as, in order, undermining, destabilising, threatening and adding tension. Some questions it neither asks nor answers: since, say 2002, is jihadism a bigger threat or a smaller threat? Iraq more stable or less stable? Afghanistan ditto? Russia more friendly or less friendly? China ditto? What makes them think that another dozen years of the same thing will get different results?

PUTIN'S RESPONSE. In what I agree was probably not an accident, Putin uses the expression "our geopolitical opponents" rather than his more usual "partners" at a recent meeting of the Security Council. "We cannot hope that some of our geopolitical opponents will change their hostile course anytime in the foreseeable future." This is as close as I have seen him come to publicly stating Russia is under attack. He remains confident: "It is clear today that attempts to split and divide our society, play on our problems, and seek out our vulnerable spots and weak links have not produced the results hoped for by those who imposed these restrictive measures on our country and continue to support them." He is correct to be confident, in my opinion.

N"G"Os. The Russian Federation Council has listed foreign organisations operating in Russia it considered to be undesirable and asked the Prosecutor General to rule on them. The idea presumably being to get a ruling that allows them to be expelled. They are the usual array of so-called non-government organisations which are part and parcel of Suzanne Nossel's "smart power". That is to say, agents of US foreign policy usually funded by the US State Department (eg, NDI, Freedom House, NED). These are the incubators of "colour revolutions".

RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP

by Patrick Armstrong

SAUDIS SWITCHING SIDES AGAIN? In 1945 US President Roosevelt met with Abdul Aziz ibn Saud, the ruler of the eponymously named Saudi Arabia. Formerly allied with, and dependent on, Britain, this account makes it clear that the meeting was at Abdul Aziz's initiative; he chose to move away from the old world power to the new one. Note the assumption of the author that Roosevelt had the initiative. I don't agree; far from being an illiterate tribesman from the back of beyond, Abdul Aziz was a man of great courage, charisma and intelligence ever prepared to take a risk, as he had in the raid on the Rashidis. I ask viewers who the dominant man in this photo is. Be that as it may, with the meeting in St Petersburg, have we just seen his descendants move, once again, to the ascending power? If not, they're considering it.

PROJECTION. The latest utterance of NATO's GenSek uses the idiotic phrase "hybrid war". What? When we go to war we're supposed to look like this? How childish. And how meretricious: "We're not interested in a fair fight with anyone," Gen Hodges said. "We want to have overmatch in all systems." The GenSek did not, however, speak of Putin's "troll army" or "information weaponisation" as he has done in the past. That may be because, thanks to Edward Snowden, internet trolling, false names and all the rest are actually practised by the UK and others in the West, The amount of psychological projection in all this is immense. The only way to decode these utterances is to understand that when NATO accuses Russia of doing something it's an admission that NATO's actually doing it. For example, when he said NATO would "endorse a defence capacity building package to help Moldova", he meant that Moldova and Transdnestr are to be a new front.

RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP

by Patrick Armstrong

NONE TO JUNE. TAKING A BREAK

PUTIN'S Q&A SESSION. Here. Rather boring this year I thought: a lot of minutiae about small farmers' problems, medicines, local train services and so on; much agreement that things must be improved. Something important on the Western sanctions; "we must benefit from the situation with the sanctions to reach new development frontiers. Otherwise, we probably would not have done it. This goes for import substitution policies, which we are now forced to implement." Many of the people whom I talk to (with, I might say, a much better track record of assessment than the usual "experts" that fill the MSM: Kraus, Auckland) agree that import substitution will be of great benefit. Nothing on foreign matters that he hasn't said many times before: open for cooperation, but won't be pushed around. When asked why he does these sessions he said they were a sociological poll: "Millions of questions have arrived though different channels and they offer an opportunity to see what people are really concerned about." 3 million phonecalls and SMS messages, in fact. It is a window into concerns.

HAPPINESS. Russians are a lot happier than they used to be; read this. Some US data. Interesting.

NEW NWO. Putin lifted the ban on the sale of the effective S-300 AD system to Iran. The Lausanne talks are expected to bear fruit; Iran will probably be soon welcomed into the SCO joining a security alliance with China and Russia. India is also expected to formally join. Another piece in the new order.

OLYMPICS. The Russian Audit Chamber says 324.9 billion rubles (US$6.2 billion) was spent on the Olympics and Paralympics with revenues of 85.4 billion rubles (US$1.6 billion) in revenues. That's about what I said at the time. Hostile Western media confused the other large sums spent on developing the Sochi-Adler complex altogether. Here are some reports of what's happening there now.

JIHADISM. It is reliably reported that the leader of the Caucasus Emirate amir was killed in a special operation in Dagestan. Here's Gordon Hahn's informed take.

RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP

by Patrick Armstrong

WESTERN VALUES™. We're sure learning the difference between reality and rhetoric, aren't we? Constitutional order: Yanukovich leaves town and loses his position, Yemen president leaves town, keeps his. "I’m not going to draw parallels here" says Harf as she proceeds to. Freedom of speech: pianist cancelled because of her tweets or, as they might say, "Charlie? Qui est-il?".

AN ESSENTIAL READ. I highly recommend Vladimir Golstein's essay "Politics, Bullshit, and Ukraine". Putin & Co are telling the truth or lying; but in either case they believe there is a factual reality to be addressed. The other side is simply bullshitting: reality is whatever they say it is (vide Harf above). BS engenders conspiracy theories: obviously last year's coup was not about improving the life of Ukrainians so it must be about something else (my entries here). But read the whole essay, it's very illuminating.

THE RUBLE. Remember when it was on its way to complete destruction? Well it's now the best performing currency of the year. The Russian economy is stabilising. Predicting is tough – what you want to see often gets in the way.

CRIMEA. Crimea had a problem in that most of its fresh water came from Ukraine and Kiev could cut it off. Not any more: Russian military engineers have found aquifers and are laying pipelines. One of the biggest mis-assumptions, to my mind, of those who started the trouble in Ukraine (never forget the phone call) was the idea that Moscow was more or-less helpless to do anything. Time and time again, Moscow has out-manoeuvred Nuland & Co. Moscow will be pumping money into Crimea for obvious reasons. Nothing much had happened there under Kiev's rule (or, for that matter, anywhere else in Ukraine – its GNI grew the least of all the post soviet countries 1993-2012 – not something, I think, anyone would have predicted in 1991). So there's plenty to be done.

RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP

by Patrick Armstrong

PUTIN'S DISAPPEARANCE. Western media outlets, governments and “experts” beclown themselves. Again.

CRIMEA, THE WAY HOME. Крым Путь на Родину. Here it is with English subtitles. Watch it: Korsun showed Crimeans what was coming, Berkut provided a seed crystal for self-defence and taught them how to recognise and suppress a “spontaneous” demo (go to 41).

WESTERN VALUES™ PART 1. Andrei Babitsky, once a certified hero journalist speaking truth to Putin, has been fired. It's not enough to be 99% anti-Putin, it must be 100% all the time. Read this.

NEMTSOV MURDER. Remember that? The investigators stick to their story: Dadayev did kill him; ordered by Adam Osmayev, commander of Jokhar Dudayev Battalion in Kiev forces, to embarrass Putin. This raises the possibility that the Charlie Hebdo connection was just the hook to get Dadayev to do it.

SNOWDEN. The German Vice Chancellor says Washington threatened to cease sharing intelligence if Berlin offered him asylum or allowed him to travel there. Deduction: if Germany was threatened, so was everyone else. We know that the Bolivian President's plane was forced down (so much for Obama's promise). Evidently, a lot of pressure was applied. One country refused to knuckle under. What do you suppose that has to do with current events?

RUSSIAN ECONOMY. Piece here from a rational observer. Not too bad but wait and see. Another agreeing.

QUOTE OF THE YEAR. The German Foreign Minister told US Secretary of State John Kerry “it’s far too early to pat our shoulders and take pride in what we have achieved” in Ukraine. Thousands dead and maimed, immense property damage, economic ruin, oligarch wars, neo-nazis, war talk. Much too early.

WESTERN VALUES™ PART 2. Turns out that the Clinton Foundation got lots of money from a Ukrainian oligarch. No effect on policy of course.

MINSK II. Kiev has broken it. Item 4 called for “a dialogue” “on modalities of conducting local elections”. Instead the Ukraine parliament passed a law saying that elections can only begin after the areas are returned to Kiev's control. No dialogue there. By the way, read the agreement: Moscow is required to do nothing, Kiev much. So when the WMSM tells you Moscow has broken it, as it will, ask yourself what part of the agreement it's broken. A resumption of war is likely, and the end result will be the same. But this time, I expect Moscow to really intervene (why bother with another agreement Kiev won't keep?) And, when it does, there will be no need for blurry satellite photos and reporters who forgot their smart phones. But, should the oligarch war get violent – see below – there will be no requirement.

OLIGARCH WARS. Have started. Still very murky but here is what we know. Ihor Kolomoysky is someone your media outlets have not told you much about: an oligarch, funder of many private armed formations, suspected of many atrocities (MH-17 shootdown?), he was appointed Governor of Dnepropetrovsk in the new oligarch-free European-style Ukraine and hailed as a patriot by the ever-accommodating WMSM. Parliament passed a law that would have reduced his control of certain oil companies. He sent armed men to take over two head offices. Poroshenko said no more private military organisations would be tolerated. Yesterday he dismissed him as Governor of Dnepropetrovsk. Not over yet; in theory Kolomoysky has a lot of armed forces that answer to him. WMSM and State Department spin will be entertaining to watch.

“DRAGOON RIDE”. The brainchild of the excitable General Hodges, a US army column will travel through several east European countries: “to assure those allies that live closest to the Bear that we are here”. Ludicrous: a cavalry squadron, an insignificant light force, will probably only make people nervous. There should be some amusement as it proceeds through the Czech Republic: the locals have been warned not to throw vegetables at it and the Czech Army will escort it. Moscow will only be more contemptuous. And that's assuming there are no embarrassing breakdowns, lapses in discipline, traffic accidents, protests etc.

“PUTIN'S INFORMATION WAR”. No wonder the West is having trouble selling its story: “The product they’re selling is not very attractive overseas”. “if you're going to say someone is a poisonous liar who traffics in conspiracy theories, then you should show that. That the Post doesn't seem to feel the need to do so either means the evidence isn't there, or that the burden of proof is very low when it comes to official enemies”. Western governments wouldn't be whining unless they knew their story was failing.