Russia: Other Points of View

MOSCOW––ANDREI KORTUNOV, RIAC

On June 2, 2015 we 20 American travelers split into groups of four and traveled by metros or taxis with student guides to different parts of Moscow.  Our videographer Mel Van Dusen, Merlin Miller, organizer of a new political party from Tennessee, Charles Heberle, retired military who worked at the Pentagon and NATO and I went to see an old acquaintance with whom I'd kept up for over 30 years. 

Back in 1984 a group of us got an appointment to Moscow's  U.S.-Canada Institute, a prestigious 'think tank' that was considered the most liberal in the Soviet Union. To our surprise a quite young, blonde-haired young man introduced himself as Andrei Kortunov. He was decades younger than others in this respected institute.  Obviously bright and comfortable in his position, he seemed warmly predisposed to all things American unlike others we had met. Andrei was clearly interested in discussing issues off and on with citizen diplomats from the U.S.  During the Gorbachev and Yeltsin years I watched his career take him to positions of responsibility wherein he remained the same logical, open, helpful personality he exhibited from the beginning. 

Today Andrei is the Director General of the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC) and the President of the New Eurasia Foundation (FNE). He is still down to earth, modest and as hesitant-to-be-sharp as was the fair-haired young man we met at around age 20. One thing noted this time, he seems weary from dealing with the heavy issues of his position––yet is as always the consummate gentleman.  Mel pushed him with questions that finally brought out his feelings on a number of issues related to the US-Russia relationship.

CUBAN MISSILE CRISIS IN REVERSE?

Cuban Missile Crisis in Reverse?

by Craig K. Comstock

published by OpEdNews on August 20, 2015

          Whatever one thinks of Putin, it's fair to ask whether the US is on the path to risking a Cuban missile crisis in reverse. What if Ukraine invites NATO to station nuclear missiles on its territory or conduct "war games" near the Russian heartland or engage in other military activities? Didn't the very long and extensive US involvement in Vietnam start with "trainers"? 

What is now the country of Ukraine was once a province of the USSR. And some parts of Ukraine are closer to Moscow than Cuba to Washington, D.C. When Khrushchev shipped nuclear rockets to Castro's island, and they were discovered by a US surveillance plane, it set off a crisis that has been called the most dangerous time in human history. 

During the famous crisis, JFK and his "executive committee" knew that Soviet strategic rockets were emplaced in Cuba and potentially armed with nuclear warheads. What they apparently didn't know was that the Soviets had also sent tactical nuclear warheads to Cuba to combat a possible U.S. invasion of that island. 

GRANDMASTER FOR RUSSIA AND AMERICA

http://chess-news.ru

June 22, 2015

Vladimir Putin, America's Reluctant Foe

Monday, 22.06.2015 18:16

By Lev Alburt, Grandmaster 

Chess player for Russia and for America

 

Editorial introduction

 

Lev Alburt will celebrate his 70th birthday in August. His life was divided in two: the first half passed in the Soviet Union, the second is going on in the USA. In his first homeland, the Odessian GM achieved many successes: he was 3-time Ukrainian Champion, a winner and a prize-winner of numerous international competitions, a repeated participant of the USSR Championship finals which were by then strongest tournaments in the world. In 1979, Alburt, as the saying went, "chose freedom", deciding not to come back from abroad. He has settled down in New York city and has been living there from then on.

 As Alburt moved to the USA, he became one of the top American Grandmasters, winning the U.S. Championship three times and representing this country many times at the Olympiads. He is still into chess, being not only a successful coach but also a prolific writer. He is the author of many chess books on various topics, which are being sold in prestigious American and European book shops and could occupy nearly a bookshelf if taken together.

 Apart from that, Albert has devoted a lot of his time to fighting Soviet communism. He spent his first-earned US money on a trip to Washington D.C. for the Sakharov Hearings. Whenever he got a chance, he provided his chess colleagues coming to the West with anti-Soviet literature. He participated in different rallies and forums, knew Bukowski and Amalrik, was in correspondence with Solzhenitsyn. He was also a member of organizations that made no secret of their intentions to change the Soviet regime.

A REALITY CHECK FROM RUSSIA

Dear Friends.

I've been in StPetersburg and Moscow for the past two weeks.  As for the tragedy being played out in Ukraine, it's been surprising to find total uniformity of opinion from Russian citizens, including groups of our CCI alumni.  This is not due to "controlled media," since all I've spoken with check a multitude of media sources daily on Internet, including CNN. Their ages range from 25 to 55 years, generally they are the builders of Russia's middle class. It is not long-term support for  Putin, because at least half of them weren't supporters of Putin previously. But today the situation has changed.

Crimea––they are adamant that Crimea has always been Russian; that Russia fought battles to keep Crimea in former centuries, and except for a small percentage of Tartars, Crimeans are ethnic Russians––and that Khrushchev turning Crimea over to Ukraine was just a fluke on paper of a discredited Soviet leader trying to impress his birthplace with his power. Many of our alumni vacation in Crimea (it has enviable warm weather), they claim they have never heard any language other than Russian spoken on Crimean streets, further that Crimeans are Russian Orthodox, and feel themselves to be Russian. I'm told that in 1991 when Yeltsin gave all areas outside of Russia their freedom, that the Crimeans declared themselves independent. Four months later, the bureaucrats in Kiev disagreed, and unfortunately Crimea has remained politically bound to Ukraine since.  Our friends remind that as children they went to summer youth camps in Crimea and vacation there routinely as adults.  They have always considered Crimea a part of Russia as did the locals.  Hence, when it became obvious that Kiev would no longer permit Russian as official language and rapidly began institutionalizing Western Ukrainian culture in Crimea, the locals balked.  Our alumni add that Crimeans were grateful and excited to be officially rejoined with Russia.

THE WEST ON THE WRONG PATH

REPRINTS

By Gabor Steingart

http://www.handelsblatt.com/

DüsseldorfEvery war is accompanied by a kind of mental mobilization: war fever. Even smart people are not immune to controlled bouts of this fever. “This war in all its atrociousness is still a great and wonderful thing. It is an experience worth having“ rejoiced Max Weber in 1914 when the lights went out in Europe. Thomas Mann felt a “cleansing, liberation, and a tremendous amount of hope“.

Even when thousands already lay dead on the Belgian battle fields, the war fever did not subside. Exactly 100 years ago, 93 painters, writers, and scientists composed the “Call to the world of culture.“ Max Liebermann, Gerhart Hauptmann, Max Planck, Wilhelm Röntgen, and others encouraged their countrymen to engage in cruelty towards their neighbor: “Without German militarism, German culture would have been swept from the face of the earth a long time ago. The German armed forces and the German people are one. This awareness makes 70 million Germans brothers without prejudice to education, status, or party.“

We interrupt our own train of thought: “History is not repeating itself!” But can we be so sure about that these days? In view of the war events in the Crimean and eastern Ukraine, the heads of states and governments of the West suddenly have no more questions and all the answers. The US Congress is openly discussing arming Ukraine. The former security advisor Zbigniew Brzezinski recommends arming the citizens there for house-to-house and street combat. The German Chancellor, as it is her habit, is much less clear but no less ominous: “We are ready to take severe measures.“

German journalism has switched from level-headed to agitated in a matter of weeks. The spectrum of opinions has been narrowed to the field of vision of a sniper scope.

UKRAINE: ITS ONLY THE END OF THE FIRST PERIOD

FINANCIAL ANALYSIS

by Chris Weafer

A good hockey player plays where the puck is. A great hockey player plays where the puck will be” 

Wayne Gretzky

Petro Poroshenko’s first priority will be to suppress the para-military groups in East Ukraine. His second priority is to establish economic pragmatism with Moscow. The Kremlin is open to such an approach but has stipulated that it is closely monitoring the actions against the pro-Russia separatists in the East. This may yet be a deal breaker which would keep investment risk high in both countries. The worse the TV pictures from the East and the longer they last, the greater the pressure on markets in both countries. 

There are conflicting messages about a possible EU brokered gas deal. It is still very possible that a deal will be struck by the weekend (very positive for all sides and for Gazprom’s cash flows) but threats are still being exchanged against a tense political backdrop. As we have noted previously, a gas deal (or not) will provide the clearest signal of the hoped for pragmatic relationship between Russia and Ukraine and the start of an improvement in Moscow’s relations with the EU. 

We expect Ukraine to pay down $2 bln of the debt up-front and another $500 mln in June and Gazprom to revise its price to the European average (or close to it) which is currently $380 p/1’000 cm. Naftogaz is reported to be still unhappy with the terms (probably on the volume off-take) but the EU is pushing Kiev to reach a deal. That may be ahead of this weekend’s deadline or in the coming weeks. Kiev has received $3.2 bln from the IMF, plus has raised $1 bln via the US loan guarantee and is expecting at least $1 bln from the EU shortly. It has enough to cover Gazprom plus other scheduled debt obligations.

The full note is available  Download Ukraine_Its_only_the_end_of_the_first_period_28.05.14

RUSSIA ACTS LIKE ANY OTHER SUPERPOWER

Friends,

At last an article that is truthful, multi-laterial in perspective, and poses no enemies––Stephen Kinzer just tells the truth about the world in which we live.

Whether we like it or not, at the current state of our planet's political evolution, below is an apt description of how major powers operate.

If we Americans have operated in this manner for centuries now, we have to understand that others, Russia and China as they rise, will also.  Granted we have had a long run of being the only superpower, but those days are now over --- regardless of how reticent we are to give up the status.  

Rather than become accusatory of Russia for operating like we have (and still do), let us begin to consider how as major nations we can begin to cooperate to bring about more humane ways of treating those in territories near our borders.

Sharon Tennison

 

Boston Globe

May 11, 2014

Russia acts like any other superpower

By Stephen Kinzer

Stephen Kinzer is a visiting fellow at the Watson Institute for International Studies at Brown University.

In the idealized world, borders are sacrosanct, and all countries are fully independent. The global system does not really work that way. Big powers always try to subdue their weaker neighbors. They seek a sphere of influence - a ring of buffer states that need not be vassals but must, in the end, accept the fate to which geography consigns them. 

Much outrage is being vented in Washington over Russia's annexation of Crimea, formerly governed by Ukraine. Secretary of State John Kerry called Russia a "rogue state." President Obama has reportedly concluded that he can now "never have a constructive relationship" with Vladimir Putin, the Russian leader.

RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP

by Patrick Armstrong

KIEV ATTACKS. On Tuesday what remains of Kiev’s army, accompanied with threats of destruction, entered two eastern cities, Kramatorsk and Slavyansk. The soldiers soon switched sides (or as they say in Kiev “Russian terrorist sabotage groups have been captured six units of armored vehicles”), up went the Russian flags and St George ribbons and the townspeople fed them; I guess the American rations didn’t get to them. Interview. And another column stopped. Good news – especially when you think of what the rhetoric of easterners as “terrorists” and Washington’s enthusiastic encouragement could have led to. Today will probably tell: if the attacks fizzle out, there’s still hope for a federalised Ukraine. I look forward to watching Washington, Brussels (and Ottawa, I am ashamed to include) try and spin their way out of this shattering confutation of their fantasies. Reminds me of the Ossetia War when Wikileaks revealed that the US Embassy had uncritically transmitted whatever nonsense it was being fed by the Saakashvili regime.

TIME TO GO? Staff in Kiev’s power ministries are changing sides, refusing to attack the protesters, melting away; there are more dismissals in the power organs. Kiev’s new rulers have, apart from the uncertain loyalty of the most extreme, little force available (vide Kramatorsk). Moody’s has dropped Ukraine to “default imminent with little prospect for recovery”. Their sponsors in Brussels and Washington have kicked in only a sum that would about cover what China is suing Ukraine for. Meanwhile conditions worsen for the ordinary stiff. Large areas of the east ignore Kiev and demand more autonomy or a referendum. And where’s Right Sector? Disarmed? Mobilising? Or beating up presidential candidates and demanding resignations in Kiev? Can’t think Yatsenyuk will be around for much longer: no power, no money, no support. A visit from the CIA head isn’t much comfort.

GETTING UKRAINE WRONG

Dear CCI friends,

More notable Americans are coming out now with cogent articles questioning Washington's current Ukraine policy––not earlier probably because the situation evolved so rapidly and likely caught even most specialists off guard.

The article below has particular merit since Mearsheimer has concentrated on how "great power politics" seem to have a penchant for tragic consequences.

As for the referendum in Crimea this weekend, I hope the results will be made known, Putin will make it clear that Russia is ready to pull the troops back home with guarantees that certain safeguards for Crimean people are established and worked out with UN agreements with all sides signing off, and that the guarantees of the two bases remain sacrosanct until 2047.  Lastly that US agree not to put NATO forces in Ukraine.  This may be too optimistic, but it's my hope. I'm also grateful that the majority of ordinary Americans being polled are against any further involvement in Ukraine issues.

All my best to you,   Sharon

 

The International New York Times

March 14, 2014

Getting Ukraine Wrong

By JOHN J. MEARSHEIMER

John J. Mearsheimer, a professor of political science at the University of Chicago, is the author of "The Tragedy of Great Power Politics."

President Obama has decided to get tough with Russia by imposing sanctions and increasing support for Ukraine's new government. This is a big mistake. This response is based on the same faulty logic that helped precipitate the crisis. Instead of resolving the dispute, it will lead to more trouble.

The White House view, widely shared by Beltway insiders, is that the United States bears no responsibility for causing the current crisis. In their eyes, it's all President Vladimir V. Putin's fault - and his motives are illegitimate. This is wrong. Washington played a key role in precipitating this dangerous situation, and Mr. Putin's behavior is motivated by the same geopolitical considerations that influence all great powers, including the United States.

The taproot of the current crisis is NATO expansion and Washington's commitment to move Ukraine out of Moscow's orbit and integrate it into the West. The Russians have intensely disliked but tolerated substantial NATO expansion, including the accession of Poland and the Baltic countries. But when NATO announced in 2008 that Georgia and Ukraine "will become members of NATO," Russia drew a line in the sand. Georgia and Ukraine are not just states in Russia's neighborhood; they are on its doorstep. Indeed, Russia's forceful response in its August 2008 war with Georgia was driven in large part by Moscow's desire to prevent Georgia from joining NATO and integrating into the West.

RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP

by Patrick Armstrong

Propaganda. Watch for these news items in your local media outlet to indicate when it stops re-typing and starts reporting. Who is what in the new govt in Kiev; the sniper story; General Dempsey has no evidence the soldiers in Crimea are Russians; what the treaty allows Russia to have in Crimea; whether Yanukovych was deposed according to the constitution. There are others but these are a start. Most have had some mention in Europe but very little in North America. The Guardian seems to have the most even coverage. While waiting, amuse yourself by applying to the USA the US State Department method of getting rid of presidents you don’t like. (Number 4; no messy constitutions). Or enjoy the psychoanalysis of Putin.

“Remember the yellow water!” I steal this from Gordon Hahn: remember all the stories about Sochi? Many of them outright lies? Don’t be taken in again. Remember the yellow water. And everything worked.

Not selling. But the information war doesn’t seem to be selling. In the Ossetian War the West’s propaganda line was well accepted and it was only months later that the truth started to appear. This time however, I notice that many commenters spurn the standard line. On many websites 50% or more do not buy it. Why the difference? The New Media is more powerful and there are more alternate sources of information than your local media outlets; too many people have heard US diplomats stage-directing things; the rather flippant reaction by Ashton to the sniper story; words of sobriety from Kissinger, Cohen or Matlock. A few examples of these sceptical comments.