Russia: Other Points of View

RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP

by Patrick Armstrong

PARIS. The usual "solidarity" theatre. None of this means a thing and won't until we start to hear about the role of Wahhabism in all this, where it comes from and who spreads it; Daesh's Turkey supply route; that Washington and its allies cannot support jihadists in one place and expect to control them in another; that US neocons and "humanitarian interventionists" have produced a catastrophe; that Assad is an ally; that Iran is an ally; that Putin is not only an ally but knows what to do; that NATO is wasting its time "protecting" the Baltics from Russia and should either start really dealing with its members' security or give up. That will require an unprecedented amount of truth-telling. Danielle Ryan speculates on changes in the spin machine.

BUT MAYBE WE ARE HEARING... The CIA man who helped start it all reflects that Western intervention made it worse. A retired British general dares to say "Wahhabi". A former CIA deputy director thinks it's time to team up with Assad. Even the WaPo starts to get it – US-supplied missile destroys a US-supplied Humvee. Meanwhile, Russia's initiative gains support in Vienna.

PUTIN (ONCE AGAIN) EXPLAINS HIS POSITION. Take seven minutes and watch this video from about a year ago. And ask yourself: does this sound right or wrong? If you think it wrong, see Joe Biden agree with him: "[Our allies] poured hundreds of millions of dollars and tens, thousands of tons of weapons into anyone who would fight against Assad except that the people who were being supplied were Al Nusra and Al Qaeda and the extremist elements of jihadis coming from other parts of the world." (Text)

SYRIA. Obviously much is happening and the situation is very fluid. Russia stepped up operations against Daesh (the airliner was brought down by a bomb), targeting the oil business – videos of hits on storage tanks and trucks. Oil is a major source of Daesh funds; the US claims at last to be targeting it. (How could it not have seen those lines of trucks? But the US effort had been rather half-hearted.) Long-range aviation seems to be hitting infrastructure while (more) aircraft based in Syria concentrate on close air support to the Syrian Army (progressing). The big question is this: it is clear to the objective viewer that Russia is leading the attack; will Paris sign up with Moscow? Ideas that France "lead" the attacks are absurd: only Russia and the USA have "full service" militaries. Hollande is close to it: "In the next few days, I will therefore meet with President Obama and President Putin to unite our forces and to achieve a result which, at this point, has been put off for far too long." There's an opportunity because France is sending its carrier to the Med and Putin told the Navy to coordinate efforts with it. The two military heads have talked. Gilbert Doctorow, an astute observer, expects cooperation – there's huge popular support in France for it. Obama himself has taken a baby step towards the Putin position which was, again, upheld at Vienna. In short, Assad is not the problem, Daesh is. Even – even! – Clinton gets it.

REFUGEES. Syria's UN Ambassador says about a million refugees have returned since the Russian strikes, and associated Syrian army victories, began. A million? Well, anyway, it's clear that the solution to the European refugee/migrant problem is make the countries they came from worth living in again. More truth-telling will be required here: as I said before, the refugees come from places NATO "saved".

MESSING WITH THEIR MINDS. Russian TV "accidentally" showed a frightening Russian weapon. Or maybe it's just a piece of paper. The US will probably wind up spending billions and billions.

ECONOMY. More evidence that the Russian economy is turning around from Bloomberg.

ISOLATED PUTIN. The RI Humour Editor permits herself a small smile. Reality and polite diplomacy proves a powerful combination against fantasy and bluster.

SPORTS DOPING. Yes, no, maybe. But I am always suspicious when another anti-Russia campaign starts.

WHO'S IN CHARGE? 50 analysts from the US Defense Intelligence Agency have claimed their reports were manipulated to give "a more positive picture to the White House". The former DIA head says warnings were ignored. "Shellback" argues that the US int establishment does not support what the US Administration is doing. Are these catastrophes the work of amateurs and ignoramuses?

MH17. Remember that? Some Dutch media companies are suing the government to try and get more information. (In Dutch). By the way, US satellites detected the explosion of the Russian airliner, so what did they see with MH17 and why are we still not told what it was? You know why.

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Ottawa, Canada Websites: ROPV, US-Russia, Russia Insider

RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP

by Patrick Armstrong

NONE TO JUNE. TAKING A BREAK

PUTIN'S Q&A SESSION. Here. Rather boring this year I thought: a lot of minutiae about small farmers' problems, medicines, local train services and so on; much agreement that things must be improved. Something important on the Western sanctions; "we must benefit from the situation with the sanctions to reach new development frontiers. Otherwise, we probably would not have done it. This goes for import substitution policies, which we are now forced to implement." Many of the people whom I talk to (with, I might say, a much better track record of assessment than the usual "experts" that fill the MSM: Kraus, Auckland) agree that import substitution will be of great benefit. Nothing on foreign matters that he hasn't said many times before: open for cooperation, but won't be pushed around. When asked why he does these sessions he said they were a sociological poll: "Millions of questions have arrived though different channels and they offer an opportunity to see what people are really concerned about." 3 million phonecalls and SMS messages, in fact. It is a window into concerns.

HAPPINESS. Russians are a lot happier than they used to be; read this. Some US data. Interesting.

NEW NWO. Putin lifted the ban on the sale of the effective S-300 AD system to Iran. The Lausanne talks are expected to bear fruit; Iran will probably be soon welcomed into the SCO joining a security alliance with China and Russia. India is also expected to formally join. Another piece in the new order.

OLYMPICS. The Russian Audit Chamber says 324.9 billion rubles (US$6.2 billion) was spent on the Olympics and Paralympics with revenues of 85.4 billion rubles (US$1.6 billion) in revenues. That's about what I said at the time. Hostile Western media confused the other large sums spent on developing the Sochi-Adler complex altogether. Here are some reports of what's happening there now.

JIHADISM. It is reliably reported that the leader of the Caucasus Emirate amir was killed in a special operation in Dagestan. Here's Gordon Hahn's informed take.

Reflections on Hill's and Gaddy's "The American Education of Vladimir Putin" (The Atlantic, 16 February 2015)

http://gordonhahn.com

February 17, 2015

Reflections on Hill's and Gaddy's "The American Education of Vladimir Putin" (The Atlantic, 16 February 2015)

Fiona Hill and Clifford Gaddy have provided a superb analysis of Russian President Vladimir Putin's alienation from America and its foreign policy. In most accounts nowadays Russia's actions are interpreted shorn of context. "Russia invaded Georgia." "Russia invaded Ukraine." "Putin criticized America." "Russians see the U.S. as an Enemy." Routinely, almost unanimously, Russia is portrayed as acting spontaneously in a vacuum with reference to the world around it. Its policies and actions are not responses to Western policies and actions. They are carefully thought out plans designed to defeat the West, regardless of what the West may or may not do. 

For example, in the 2008 Ossetian war, Russia is said to have begun the war. What preceded Russia's invasion - Georgia's massive bombing of South Ossetia's capitol of Tskhinval(i) with inaccurate GRAD missiles, the killing of one hundred civilians and 19 Russia peacekeepers in the GRAD bombings, and Georgian troops' invasion of South Ossetia and crazed rampage through Tskhinval(i) - is left out of the picture. Similarly now, accounts of "Russia's war in Ukraine" and "Russia's invasion of Ukraine" leave out prior events: . Moreover, the nature of Russia's intervention in the Donbass is overstated and 'evidence' is often shoddy and even falsified by Kiev and taken as gospel truth without question by US government and media.

RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP

by Patrick Armstrong

New NWO. The Chinese foreign minister made it plain: “We believe that Russia has opportunities and knowledge to overcome the current problems in the economy. The Chinese-Russian relations of strategic partnership are at a high level, we are always supporting and helping our friend. If the Russian side needs it, we shall offer all possible support we may have”. Why is China doing this? Self-interest: if Washington can bring Russia down, China knows it’s next on the list. Meanwhile, China is moving into Latin America. Washington and Brussels have united two powers that can crash their economies at will (at, admittedly, large – but not fatal – cost to themselves.) 

Truth leaks out. Despite the best efforts of Western governments and their tame media, bits of truth are slowly – but not quickly enough – leaking out. The head of Stratfor described it as “the most blatant coup in history”. As to neo-nazis (long pooh-poohed as a Putin fantasy – here, here and here for example), even the Washington Post admits “But now several of these units, especially those linked to oligarchs or the far right, are revealing a dark side.” Smaller publications can report more reality (Christianity Today or Salon) while the larger, like the NYT, still adhere to the Party Line. Here is a careful piece about neo-nazis and here a compendium on the subject. Read these and decide for yourself if this is a trivial phenomenon. Ignore the election result argument, these people prefer to create fear and compulsion: here, here, here, here. (What would the NYT or Economist say if there were a campaign for “real” Russian names, torchlight parades shouting “Glory to Russia” or guards at Christmas crèches to protect them from Obama?) Even the tame Western “human rights” organisations are starting to notice who’s shelling civilians. “Merkel should emphasize the need for Ukraine’s Defense Ministry to issue clear and specific orders... not to use certain explosive weapons in areas populated by civilians.” The notion that the defenders are destroying their own families’ housing is a little preposterous, isn’t it? Especially when Poroshenko thinks it desirable their children hide in basements. Everybody has a phone camera and a Web link now; hard to control the story.

Military etc. An amendment to Russia’s military doctrine states NATO expansion and its buildup on Russia’s borders is a threat: not really new, just that Moscow has stopped hinting. Meanwhile, as if to remind Washington – again – that Russia is not Libya or Afghanistan, a third SLBN was handed over to the Navy: these three boats carry 16 Bulava missiles each, each with 6 independently targetable warheads. 288 warheads in new, modern, tested systems. Then a land-based ICBM was successfully tested. We are informed that there are now 295,000 professional soldiers in the Armed Forces with the plan to add another 55,000 in 2015. Meanwhile, the heavy Angara A-5 rocket successfully launched a dummy payload. Russia kept its world-wide lead in space launches with 38. 

Day late and a dollar short. “Because we think it is important that Russia... and NATO are able to work together on important issues, like for instance, fighting terror.” Brilliant idea 15 years ago, good idea 10 years ago, OK idea 5 years ago, today, too late: you can’t call Russia an aggressor and ask for cooperation in one and the same statement.

Chechnya. Take ten minutes to watch this. A lot of things are happening you’re not told about.

Eurasian Economic Union. First suggested ten years ago by Nazarbayev, it took effect on 1 January. Comprising Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan and Armenia (joined the next day) it is a free trade zone. We will see how effective it proves to be, born as it is in difficult times. Russia cheekily suggest the EU join: “You really think it is wise to put so much political energy into a free trade agreement with the United States when one has a much more natural trade partner next door right in the neighborhood? At least we don’t treat our chickens with chlorine”. 

Ukrainian nuclear power station. Something is happening at the Zaporizhia nuclear power station. There have been some shutdowns – more than one, it seems. Rebel sources say radiation levels have spiked. There may be a connection with nuclear fuel from Westinghouse; dangerous says Moscow. This could be quite serious and there is no reason to believe anything Kiev says about it.

UKRAINE: Unwittingly becoming sponsor of neo-fascist terrorism in Ukraine?

Friends,  

Terrorist-expert, Dr. Gordon Hawn, explains the grave danger in Washington's sponsorship of "neo-fascist or neo-nazi" terrorism in Ukraine. This group of West Ukrainians were of European extract, their parents fought in WWII with the Nazis, and their families were caught in Ukraine in 1945 when the post-war spoils were being divided up and new defining country lines were drawn. It is  understandable that they were outraged to find themselves inside the USSR and forced to stay there.  However, that doesn't give them the right today to force their will upon East Ukrainians who have been for the most part satisfied with their 300-year Russian history, culture, language and mentality.  Please read carefully to understand what numerous other articles have alluded to, yet didn't explain so carefully.

Sharon

http://geostrategicforecasting.net

May 18, 2014
Terrorism in Ukraine
By Gordon M. Hahn

The West, in particular the U.S. government, is in grave danger of unwittingly becoming the sponsor of neo-fascist terrorism in Ukraine. Neither the Barack Obama administration nor U.S. media have focused a single word on the neo-Nazi terrorist threat hanging over Ukraine and its neighbors. In fact, in a recent hearing when U.S. Congressman Dana Rohrabacher asked U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Victoria Nuland, the architect of Ukraine's chaos and impending demise, to denounce the neo-fascists allied with the Maidan provisional government.  Nuland refused, muttering words about grandmothers and children who in her mind led the Kiev's Maidan revolution.

RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP

by Patrick Armstrong

Sochi. The anti-Sochi campaign is in full swing. (The Guardian gets everything in including the coming lack of snow about which it has some mystical foreknowledge). We have not just the homosexual stuff (a German reporter somewhat surprised to get the nonplussed view of the owner of one of two Sochi gay bars) but also the sad history of the Circassians. I have noticed pieces here and there concluding that Russia must “acknowledge its violent history in the region” or something. That’s odd, I don’t recall huffy op-eds calling on Canada to acknowledge how it came to possess the site of the Calgary Olympics or the USA the Salt Lake City site (opportunity there for two “acknowledgements”). What a load of pretentious rubbish! The cruel fate of the Circassians is hardly unknown in Russia and the authors of these pieces seem to be equally unaware of who they are (not Turkic. Quite the reverse in fact) but also that there are plenty of Circassians still living there. And that some are returning. This is all part of the current thrust of anti-Russia propaganda. As to corruption, these expensive Olympics (but the Russian Audit Chamber says direct Olympic expenses are more like $6-7 billion) may well exceed the Olympic norm but a lot has actually been built. While the site is ideal, the decayed Soviet infrastructure was not. Here is a list in Russian of what has been created in exchange for the 50-some billion – much more than just sports facilities: roads, bridges, power plants, tourist facilities to name a few. Moscow appears to be using the Olympics as an opportunity to make its Black Sea coast into an up-to-date tourist attraction. A website written by two Westerners, one of whom lives there shows many of these new things. There are going to be a lot of surprised Westerners; but then, Westerners depending on their media for information have been surprised by Russian reality for two decades now.

RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP

by Patrick Armstrong

Man of the whatever. Putin is topping a lot of year-end lists these days and I find it amusing. First because he isn’t doing or saying anything new but also because of the “Occido-centric” take. Three things are usually mentioned as where Putin is said to have got the better of Obama: Snowden, Syria and Ukraine. Well, Snowden just arrived and it’s not clear that it was an extraditable offence; we should all thank Putin for stopping another military adventure founded on another piece of questionable evidence; Ukraine was neither the West’s to gain nor his to keep. But, evidently, the West is still locked in a zero-sum (dare we say “Cold War”?) fixation. More interesting, however, is the admiration that he is starting to attract from conservatives. It’s amusing to watch. But, as I said, he hasn’t changed; only the perceptions have.

Jihadism. Much activity lately in addition to the two suicide attacks in Volgograd. A group arrested in Tatarstan on suspicion of attacks on churches in Tatarstan. Several gunfights in the North Caucasus. Bombs in Pyatigorsk and Dagestan. Three planning an attack killed in the Kabardin-Balkar Republic. Connected I suppose with the Sochi Olympics – among the “Lands of the Jihad”, much effort is put into getting publicity in order to raise money. My deduction would be that a direct attack on the Olympics is unlikely because it is a defended target: a train station – or, really, anything else – is much easier and gets the publicity.

RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP

by Patrick Armstrong

PUTIN DERANGEMENT SYNDROME. I have long been bemused by the West’s Putin obsession. Beginning when Moscow-based reporters didn’t bother to go to St Petersburg to see what people thought of the Deputy Mayor, any mention of Putin must now include ex-KGB, election fraud, deaths of reporters and so on. But a certain admiration is appearing as people notice he is a very effective leader (of course that damages the other memes that Russia is in terminal decline and he steals elections; but never mind: we’re not talking rational here). Forbes has just anointed him the world’s most powerful person. I look forward to the next twist.

SYRIA. The inspection teams claim that all equipment at Syria’s declared production sites has been destroyed. Syria joined the Chemical Weapon Convention in the middle of the month. Consumers of Western news media outlets may have noticed the curious fact that the former wall-to-wall coverage of Syria has disappeared.

BOOZE. An official says alcohol consumption per capita is currently 13.5 litres of ethyl alcohol equivalent, down from 18 in 2010. While there has been an anti-alcohol campaign, higher prices and, I think, somewhat of a behavioural change, a drop to 75% in three years sounds too good to be true.

OBAMA JOINS PUTIN WAR AS SYRIA JIHADISTS STALK OLYMPICS

REPRINTS

Bloomberg, October 25, 2013

By Ilya Arkhipov and Henry Meyer 

President Vladimir Putin is turning to Barack Obama for help protecting the costliest Winter Games ever from attacks by Islamic extremists, including hundreds of battle-hardened jihadists now fighting in Syria. 

About 400 Russian nationals, mainly from the North Caucasus, are currently battling President Bashar al-Assad's forces in Syria and their return poses a "big threat," according to Sergei Smirnov, deputy director of the Federal Security Service, or FSB, the main successor to the Soviet KGB.  

"Many of our compatriots are fighting on the side of al-Qaeda in Syria," Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Kozak, who's in charge of preparations for the Feb. 7-23 event, said in an interview in Moscow on Oct. 21. "We understand this is a global threat and we can only prevent it through joint efforts."  

EDWARD SNOWDEN AND THE HISTORY OF POST-SOVIET RUSSIAN-WESTERN RELATIONS

COMMENTARY

by Gordon M. Hahn

If you want to understand why Russian-American and Russian-Western relations have deteriorated to the point where Russian President Vladimir Putin refuses to handover NSA contractor Edward Snowden, a little historical context is in order.

None of the below is to comment on whether Putin’s rule is democratic or his refusal is the correct course of action from either a moral, ethical, or practical point of view. Rather, it is to say that Western actions of the past have mattered greatly in Russian-Western relations,  and secondly that Russia remains a great power with its own interests which are increasingly defined by an antagonism towards the West––in significant part created by Western actions.

Perhaps most important for Putin in determining his actions regarding Snowden is the earlier refugee status given to Russia's criminal oligarch, Boris Berezovskii, and the Chechen guerrilla extremist, Akhmed Zakaev, by US allies in London.