Russia: Other Points of View

RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP

by Patrick Armstrong

NEW WEBSITE. Check out http://russia-insider.com/en. Aims to provide a better source of Russia-related news. You will be able to read today what the Western MSM will grudgingly admit to in a few months.

CORRUPTION. We are informed that peculation in the defence sector may have totalled half a billion dollars. We cannot fail to notice that former Defence Minister Serdyukov walks free (as, come to think of it, do the Luzhkovs). I have always said I’ll believe that the anti-corruption drive is really biting when someone in an office near Putin or Medvedev is arrested. Hasn’t happened yet.

MILITARY EXERCISES. There have certainly been a lot of military exercises and drills in Russia this year. All quite understandable. Until 2008 I think Moscow operated on the assumption that the threat from NATO could be handled by nuclear deterrence and that Russia’s main security problems were from jihadists in the Caucasus and Central Asia. But the Georgian attack on Ossetia, which Moscow suspects was egged on by some people in Washington – certainly there were “mixed messages” – taught them that proxy wars will be coming. The fighting in Ukraine, will not have made them any less certain of this. Hence, the big drive for up-to-date and well-equipped conventional forces. George Kennan saw it all coming: “I think the Russians will gradually react quite adversely and it will affect their policies. I think it is a tragic mistake. There was no reason for this whatsoever.” Reason or not, here we are today.

RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP

by Patrick Armstrong

OLYMPICS. A triumph, no question about it, with the added  unexpected pleasure for Russia of topping the medal list. A Levada poll showed something less than enthusiasm at the start: 53% were glad Russia was hosting but 26% were not. Bet there’s more support now! Perhaps connected is a poll rating that puts Putin up to 68% approval. So, after all the toilets, fake pictures, (intentional fakes too), breathless warnings, subtropical, they were safe, everybody had a private toilet and food, the athletes seem to have enjoyed themselves. Will Western opinioneers and media outlets admit to getting it wrong? (“Sochi has been utter embarrassment for Vladimir Putin”). Silly question: “away from all the cameras, there are still many glaring questions”, “these games were anything but carefree”. I believe they went too far: in the event, millions and millions of viewers have seen the Western MSM's coverage of Russia revealed to be largely lies and propaganda and the happy, modern ordinary Russians shown are a contrast to the grey, miserable, downtrodden Russians we're told about. So, while they are indeed only sports, the Games’ success is another bucket of paint remover thrown at the Western portrait of Russia.

CORRUPTION. Investigations chew away: an investigation into fraud at the Defence Ministry re-opened upon new testimony. Perhaps connected is a report that the former minister seeks amnesty. Seven generals and admirals investigated last year for corruption. A senior official in Interior Ministry detained over claims of bribery and abuse of office. Another senior Interior Ministry official dismissed with no reason given.

RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP

by Patrick Armstrong

Olympic corruption. Navalniy has put out his corruption report. Not very impressive; mostly assertions. He agrees with Putin that the Olympic facilities, narrowly defined, cost US$6-7 billion. He thinks a 50-km road-rail route in difficult terrain up to the ski centre is very excessive at US$8 billion. (Follow the route yourself on Google Maps: not an easy one). He mentions a couple of occasions where people have been arrested for corruption. Various contractors are said to be Putin’s “friends”. Yes, a lot of money has been spent – US$40-50 billion – but it’s a huge infrastructure operation to create a permanent tourist resort complex, not just a few weeks of winter sports. Anyway, here’s his report, see whether he convinces you that enormous sums have disappeared without a trace. In a week or so you can see for yourself what’s been built: “We have to see that what we did in the Alps we needed 150 years and they had to do it in five years”.

Sochi double toilets. The story’s all over the place, latest here. But you’ve been had. Again. Read this.

Corruption. Quite a bit in the last two weeks. The nets seem to be catching bigger fish. A deputy chief of police in Moscow arrested for taking bribes. The deputy PM of Dagestan busted for fraud. A former member of the Dagestan parliament (and, for those who think they’re exempt, a stalwart member of Putin’s support party, United Russia) ditto. But, as usual, military-connected events lead the pack. A criminal case was opened against Serdyukov’s brother-in-law (I don’t believe that Serdyukov’s out of the soup yet – passing the loot off to family is a common practice). The DG of an important shipyard “suspected” of embezzlement. The Prosecutor General said inspections of the defence industry had uncovered “a huge number of violations” and 48 criminal cases have been opened. You have to agree that while there haven’t been many convictions, there certainly have been plenty of arrests.

RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP

by Patrick Armstrong

RIAN AND VOR. The state-owned RIA Novosti and Voice of Russia radio will be absorbed into a new media conglomerate called Rossiya Segodnya with Dmitriy Kiselyov as its head. (Western propaganda line on him laid out here for easy re-typing. Note that what he said isn’t actually controversial in many countries – although it might be in Russia. But, hey, it’s Russia: say what you want.) The stated reasons were that the new organisation would be more efficient, save money and better present Russia’s image in the world. Well, Russia could certainly do with something that did a better job of getting its POV out and I was personally quite disgusted when I caught RIAN repeating the lie that Putin had called the USSR’s breakup the “greatest” geopolitical catastrophe: a state-owned news outlet should get it right. So we’ll see. As usual, the Western line is that Putin has crushed press freedom. But, feeble in 2003 and non-existent in 2008, what’s left to crush?

CORRUPTION. The Investigative Committee Head gave us some official numbers. In the last  two years corruption has cost 9 billion RUB (US$271 million) (sounds low to me) of which 4 billion was recovered. More than 1600 lawmakers and local government officials were prosecuted (sounds ballpark correct to me). Putin has just created an organisation in the Presidential Administration to focus on corruption. A Sisyphean job and not to be completed in his lifetime. Or ours. Or, in truth, in anybody’s anywhere.

RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP

By Patrick Armstrong

SAAKASHVILI AND RUSSIAN OPPOSITION. Remember when Moscow said a Georgian politician had secretly met with Russian oppositionists? Remember when everyone laughed? (“risible charges” details “immediately suspicious” “political”) Well, Saakashvili just admitted it. Once again, Moscow turns out to be closer to the truth than the others.

DISAGREEMENT. It’s a common assumption in the West that no one dares disagree with Putin. Not so. Lawyers from 80 firms have issued an open letter protesting the proposal to merge the Supreme Arbitration Court into the Supreme Court. The billionaire and politician Mikhail Prokhorov has joined many others against a proposal to modify the rules on tax investigations. We shall see.

REPORTING. If anyone thinks there’s much difference between reporting on Russia and outright propaganda, compare these stories. Anti-gay laws bar Selena Gomez from Russia. Elton John will perform despite homophobia.  They can’t both be true, can they? Does anyone actually spend an instant thinking before they squash things into the anti-Russia mould of the moment?

RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP

by Patrick Armstrong

PUTIN DERANGEMENT SYNDROME. I have long been bemused by the West’s Putin obsession. Beginning when Moscow-based reporters didn’t bother to go to St Petersburg to see what people thought of the Deputy Mayor, any mention of Putin must now include ex-KGB, election fraud, deaths of reporters and so on. But a certain admiration is appearing as people notice he is a very effective leader (of course that damages the other memes that Russia is in terminal decline and he steals elections; but never mind: we’re not talking rational here). Forbes has just anointed him the world’s most powerful person. I look forward to the next twist.

SYRIA. The inspection teams claim that all equipment at Syria’s declared production sites has been destroyed. Syria joined the Chemical Weapon Convention in the middle of the month. Consumers of Western news media outlets may have noticed the curious fact that the former wall-to-wall coverage of Syria has disappeared.

BOOZE. An official says alcohol consumption per capita is currently 13.5 litres of ethyl alcohol equivalent, down from 18 in 2010. While there has been an anti-alcohol campaign, higher prices and, I think, somewhat of a behavioural change, a drop to 75% in three years sounds too good to be true.

RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP

by Patrick Armstrong

SYRIA. So, another fun military intervention that will be over by the weekend is about to light-heartedly begin. It is justified by unshakeable evidence that will later turn out to be ephemeral; evidence so certain indeed that we can’t wait for the inspectors who were conveniently nearby to report. Actually, it’s already fading. As before, the costs will go to us and the benefits to our enemies. I just don’t understand why we are spending our blood and treasure supporting our enemies .I never thought I would ever agree with Robert Fisk, but there it is.

RUSSIA-SYRIA. I believe there is too much talk of Syria being Russia's "ally" and all that: I see such assertions as part of the preparation of the intellectual battlespace: Putin and Assad are each made a more acceptable target by their alleged close association. Moscow has three main interests here. Principled: Moscow sees the actions of Washington and a few others re-arranging governments as destructive of such principles of international behaviour as exist. Practical: Moscow believes, and precedent suggests it is correct, that these “humanitarian interventions” just make things worse. Personal: the appetite grows with the feeding; is Moscow on the list to be overthrown by the new moral imperialists? The consequent instability can overflow into Russia. As a member of the P5 it is a strong upholder of the UN, a forum in which it is a big player with a veto; it doesn’t like all that to be bypassed by some sanctimonious fraction of NATO. All quite simple in fact and firmly based on national interest. The famous “Mediterranean naval base” in reality amounts to the occasional use of a dock in a small port (look at it on Google Earth). The arms sales are small change and the big ticket items are postponed. There is little Moscow can do to stop intervention, but Putin plays the long game. From that perspective, these “humanitarian interventions” weaken the USA and the other participants. He is the only adult in the playpen.

RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP

by Patrick Armstrong

RUSSIA DEBATE. My colleague Anatoly Karlin has created a website The Russia Debate as a repository for the healthy discussion throughout the English Russophere. The idea is that it would become the go to spot for discussions about issues pertaining to Russia arranged by topic and searchable. At the moment an enormous amount of this discussion happens on Mark Chapman’s site The Kremlin Stooge. All sorts of highly intelligent and useful information may be found there but it is not user-friendly. So I ask you to patronise The Russia Debate and build it up as a repository of the collective wisdom. And those of you who observe but do not participate should scout it too.

THE FAILURE OF PUTINISM. The Russian birth rate in 2012 actually exceeded the US birth rate. The World Bank ranks Russia as the fifth largest GDP in the world by purchasing power, displacing Germany, and eighth over all.  The long-predicted collapse must be postponed. Again.

CORRUPTION. Arrests and investigations: tax officer fraud; parliamentarian extortion; regional minister bribes; gang illegal money transfer; mayor corruption; Serdyukov again and again; Armed Forces. Convictions: Khimki City official for violence. And Navalniy. And Browder. And a former Tula governor. See below.

RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP

by Patrick Armstrong

Snowden. Putin made an offer that brilliantly solved everybody’s problems: Snowden could stay in Russia but he would have to keep his mouth shut. But Snowden rejected it: he will not keep quiet. But he seems to be running out of options on where to go: thus far no other country has volunteered. So he may have to take Putin’s offer yet. I believe Putin when he says there has been no collaboration between Snowden and Russian intelligence structure: I doubt very much that Snowden has anything to tell Spetssvyaz that it does not already know. Meanwhile I can’t see that this behaviour benefits the USA much.

Corruption. Last Sitrep I wondered whether the anti-corruption drive had bogged down with too many cases on the go to properly finish any one. But here is some evidence that the investigators are still working away: another facet of the OboronServis case has been exposed. And a brand-new case of embezzlement at the Baykonur Space Centre.

White collar crime. The Duma, after Putin’s request, has overwhelming passed an amnesty for white collar crimes. It will apply to first-time offenders convicted under financial laws who have compensated their victims and did not use violence. It will come into effect over the next 6 months and is expected to apply to about 13,000 in prison and another 70-80,000 under other penalties. Somewhat overdue: too many of these cases were cooked up as a bizness struggle. In another pro-business move, the Duma has voted to lift foreign ownership restrictions on small and medium-sized businesses.

RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP

by Patrick Armstrong

Syria. So the West doing it again, intervening in a fight by trying to pick the right side on the foolish assumption that if Assad is wrong the others must be less wrong; this will lead to more involvement because mere arming won’t do the job. It will, as before, wind up giving aid and comfort to the very people it’s fighting elsewhere in the world. Especially as they are strengthening their position in Syria. The triumph of hope over experience. Even such a reflexive supporter of the present US Administration as the NYT can see this. And, somehow, it’s all Putin’s fault. Incredible. The CW excuse is not believable as Ron Paul explains. I rarely agree with Brzezinski but he’s right to call it propaganda. And what you hear about Russia is part of the information “battlespace preparation”. And it’s been a successful distraction campaign: the S-300 fuss covered up the deployment of Patriots and today’s headlines read “Putin opposes West” rather than “Another military adventure to benefit our enemies”.

G8 meeting. Much abuse of Putin at the G8 meeting over Syria. But as to Harper’s  “G-7 plus one” I would be surprised if Japan supported this new “humanitarian intervention” and Germany hasn’t in the past. Maybe Italy’s not too enthusiastic either so I suspect it’s more like G4 ½ plus 3½ . Interventions were once legitimised by the UN (1^st Gulf War); then by NATO (Kosovo); now by some of NATO (Libya). Apparently there is still supposed to be an effort to be led by Moscow and Washington to produce some sort of political solution.

Trial. A protest last year against Putin’s re-appearance led to violence. All my sources agree it was started by a small band of protesters; the police may or may not have over-reacted. (BTW one of the best pieces of evidence that it was pre-planned is Ksenia Sobchak’s live journal entry in which she says she will not be attending because she knows an incident is planned.)  The trial of the alleged ringleaders has begun (“Bolotnaya Case”). By the way, contrary to what you hear in the West, Putin’s support rating, according to Levada, while perhaps declining a bit, remains at levels most other politicians can only dream of.