CIS/UKRAINE MACRO-POLITICS: INVESTOR SCENARIOS

FINANCIAL ANALYSIS

by Chris Weafer

“Luck always seems to be against the man who depends on it”Ukrainian Proverb

Ukrainian Proverb

Yesterday’s events in Ukraine appear to have bought little or no more time for President Yanakovich to try and come up with a mechanism to end the protests and to hang onto power. Uncertainty will continue to hang over the economy and the markets.

I recommend staying away from all asset classes for now.

• An accommodation between the protestors and President Yanakovich (very unlikely) which would delay elections until the scheduled date in February next year would be a buy signal.
• Any evidence that the protestors will now switch their focus to ousting the president will hit all asset prices hard, as happened in early December. 

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