Undoubtedly, something is brewing with U.S.-Russia relations right now - which must be attributable to President Obama. He has said very little himself, but consider the following:
August
- Candidate Obama, at the beginning of the August Georgia invasion of South Ossetia, remarked that all parties should get to negotiating table. John McCain immediately jumped on him as "weak" on Russia and unable to lead the nation against Russia and other tyrants.
- Afterward, Obama took a somewhat hard line regarding Russia when pushed - perhaps to avoid the issue until he had more information or the election was over.
- Meanwhile, we know Obama was discreetly collecting information. His foreign policy staff sent us an email shortly after the August Georgia/Ossetia/Russia war broke out, asking "What do you know about what's going on in South Ossetia?" (We had briefed his foreign policy team on Russia issues over the past 2.5 years.) Immediately we emailed back a piece I had just written on the invasion and began sending his staff briefs on the Georgia debacle on a weekly basis. I sent them along with editorials that finally began coming out from Ambassadors and a few VIPs until it was finally admitted that Georgia was the invader. At that point U.S. media and the administration closed down coverage of this embarrassing military miscalculation.
November
- As President Elect, while walking off stage, Obama was asked: "what about Russia?" He quietly muttered, "We need to 'reset' the Russia policy" - and faded into the crowd. Later the telling 'reset' word was attributed to Biden; but he wasn't the first to use it on national TV.
February
- Senior statesman, Henry Kissinger, without fanfare, went to Moscow to talk with President Medvedev and Evgeny Primakov, Russia's top elder statesman. We concluded (but none confirmed) that Kissinger was sent there on a mission by Obama.
- Obama pursued quiet contacts with Medvedev which leaked and quickly sealed off.
- A relatively new "Commission on U.S. Policy for Russia" with a star-studded board, became more prominent. The Commission's new pronouncements urged rapprochement with Russia.
March
- Hillary Clinton met with Minister of Foreign Affairs, Sergei Lavrov, and gave him a "yellow 'restart' box." The meeting received wide coverage, partly due to translation challenges, but good humor prevailed, and jovial faces replaced the steely look of Clinton's predecessor with the same Russian counterparts.
- About two weeks ago, "wise men", Kissinger, former Senator Sam Nunn (Nunn-Lugar Nuclear Threat Initiative), former Secretaries of State George Schultz, James Baker and other dignitaries landed quietly in Moscow for meetings with President Medvedev and Primakov.
- Susan Eisenhower, granddaughter of President Eisenhower, and expert on the USSR and Russia came to Moscow for meetings with President Medvedev and Primakov.
- A bi-partisan Congressional delegation led by former Senators Chuck Hagel and Gary Hart quietly came to Moscow for meetings with President Medvedev, Putin and Primakov.
- Last week, immediately upon return to the U.S., Senator Hagel appeared on the Rachel Maddow Show and gave a robust declaration that Russia is not the former USSR - that we need to rebuild relationships and take advantage of this era of new presidents - all the while discounting voices which still call for a Russia policy based on past decades.
- Dr. James Billington, America's Librarian of Congress, quickly assembled a Library Conference with a Who's Who guest list on Russia issues. It met Friday, March 27.
On April 2, President Obama meets with President Medvedev in London at the G20 meetings. What an auspicious lead up to this otherwise precarious meeting of the new presidents of the two most heavily nuclearized nations on the planet. Could these events be happening without an invisible hand guiding them? We think not.
In any case retooling the U.S.- Russia relationship will be a very difficult course to pursue for both countries:
US side
- US media, since 2001, has done a masterful (and deceitful) job of convincing the American public that Russia is suspect and dangerous for America.
- Whole industries are built on the need to contain and stop the ever sinister resurgent Russia.
- Many NGOs make their livings by promoting high levels of fear of Russia across the United States.
- Several other countries and even exiled oligarchs maintain lobbies and PR firms in the U.S. to keep the hate and fear levels high toward Russia.
- The hovering ghosts of Stalin, purges, gulags, repressions, are dragged out regularly as reminders of how evil the evil empire really has been and is.
- We have an intelligence community in the U.S. that buys into the zero-sum game.
- The fear that Russia might challenge US superiority in the world is an ever present reality in the minds of powerful circles in the US - no other country on the planet raises such a specter of such fear and trepidation for Americans, as do the Russians.
- These forces will not evaporate just because a new President has come to the White House - they will just go underground and break out in other venues. Their power and money depends on US-THEM relations.
Russia side
- Russia has a different set of mentalities which will be equally difficult to overcome.
- There exists a small but still influential Soviet remnant of knee-jerk resistance toward America
- Treatment by the US during Russia's devolution and despair in the 90s, is still a fresh wound
- Moving NATO to their borders has provoked centuries-old paranoia and fresh resentment
- Former KGB and intelligence people, throughout the society, accept the zero-sum game
- The group of real 'patriots of Russia' is growing - middle class, business people, the intelligentsia, students - who want to see Russia respected.
- After decades of Russians silently aspiring to be like Americans - feelings have finally soured
- 2000/2008 years were miserably mismanaged by the "good cop/bad cop" Bush team
- Major U.S. media outlets wallowed in numerous unsubstantiated accusations of Kremlin poisonings, murders, invasions - Russians read US press on line and have been outraged.
- The U.S.' urging Europeans to push Georgia and Ukraine into NATO was an insult, plus an economic challenge - denying Russia a sphere of influence was unacceptable to Russians
- The U.S. proposed missile systems in Poland and the Czech Republic was the last straw.
Today there is mass disrespect and suspicion regarding U.S. foreign policies across Russia which will be a huge block to overcome. However, Russians are intrigued with President Obama.
It needs to be registered that Russia has accepted U.S. sphere of influence in the Americas - even though we have apparently decided they are not allowed to have a regional sphere of influence.Russians rattled no missiles at us - even when major weapons' treaties expired or were broken by the US (until they responded to the threat of NATO missile systems being put in their backyard).Russians haven't wasted time obsessing over our skewed internal politics, and never have they promoted methodologies and opposition candidates to our duly elected President or Congress - even when there was question about whether either Bush election was valid. They left us to govern and fight wars in other nations as we felt necessary - and didn't interfere.
Against the above backwaters he inherited, President Obama appears determined to try to reboot the US-Russia relationship. Even with his considerable cool and steadfast demeanor, his work is cut out for him. He needs help - our help.
Each of us needs to jump into the fray immediately...
...Start the "buzz" with everyone we know that it's time for change in this relationship.
...Write or call your Congress members, VIPs, newspapers and ask them to support this direction.
...Copy this message and articles of good intent to your email lists.
...Mention to your ministers, priests, rabbis - perhaps they will include in their pulpit messages.
...Talk to your Rotary, Kiwanis, Lions, Optimists clubs - invite speakers who can help identify pathways to better understanding between our two nations.
I have confidence in the American people and our current leaders - and in the Russian people and their current leaders. Change even in this loaded situation IS possible. Zero-sum politicized games are patently dangerous and outmoded.
How abpout all this people who like Russia move there and live there, for some reason they stay here. And just suggest to let Russia influence Ukraine, why Ukraine have to be under Russia ??? we had enough of them for 350 years and 50% of poulation killed, tortured, turned in zombies.
Posted by: Oksana | December 20, 2009 at 12:33 PM