Russia: Other Points of View

RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP

by Patrick Armstrong

DEFENCE COUNCIL MEETING. Putin's and Shoygu's statements. Putin: Russia in Syria for self defence; some "Free Syrian Army" fighters cooperating; Russian forces instructed to cooperate with the US coalition and with Israel; any threats to Russian operations to be "destroyed immediately". Shoygu describes improvements, changes and equipping of the Armed Forces. The take-away point: Russia is preparing for war either nuclear or conventional. Not that it wants war: 17 years later, we come to what George Kennan warned us about: "The Russians will gradually react quite adversely... I think it is a tragic mistake. There was no reason for this whatsoever. No one was threatening anybody else". We've made them our enemy and a far more capable one than was assumed when NATO was so casually expanded.

MUST READ. Results of many meetings and discussions with Russians. Long but informative on many levels. Unfortunately consumers of the WMSM's trash will never hear of it.

THE "CASPIAN SEA MONSTER". One of my favourite Soviet technologies is being revived: RT documentary. Google maps shows one still exists.

HAVE A LAUGH. RT amuses itself with a witty video exposing how it really works (if you believe Western officials, that is). Also laughs at the latest manifestation of Putin Derangement Syndrome.

ASSAD. Kerry has just said that Washington doesn't seek regime change; so is that the end of "Assad must go" and victory for Moscow? Or will it dissolve away in the ungoverned confusion of Washington?

UNGOVERNED CONFUSION? Consider what US officials say about oil smuggling. Some smuggling, but government not involved, "can't speak to credibility of Russian satellite images". Yes into Turkey, but not much. Well maybe the Russian photos are accurate, but haven't seen the Russian videos of trucks actually crossing the border. Assad buys the oil. Are they just making it up as they go?

"FREE SYRIAN ARMY". Is collapsing, reports the US Army paper. Read the comments: not many of them, but all see the FSA for the fake it was. The official story, endless blatted forth is not believed any more.

ATTACK ON SYRIAN BASE. Damascus says 4 aircraft from the US coalition attacked an army base in Deir ez-Zor province. The US spokesman denies. Russia did it says Mr Unnamed Official. Russians and Syrians stick to the assertion. Not necessarily US aircraft – see this from a rather excitable source. Anyone who believes US statements these days, hasn't been paying attention: vide the ever-changing accounts of the Kunduz hospital strike. (And changed again since that account). Stay tuned.

MH17. I told you the DSB report was a "limited hangout". As always, the hangout is falling apart. John Helmer reports: "The Australian Federal Police and Dutch police and prosecutors investigating the cause of the crash of Malaysian Airlines MH17 believe the Dutch Safety Board (DSB) has failed to provide 'conclusive evidence' of what type of munition destroyed the aircraft". (Note, by the way, the evidence of tampering shown in the two photos). As always, they try to keep the deception going. Personally, I'm coming around to the idea it was shot down by an air-to-air missile – there simply aren't enough lethal fragments in the wreckage or bodies to be from any type of Buk warhead; they all have about 6000.

LIFE IN UKRAINE. The latest fights. (Saakashvili, by the way, has had his Georgian citizenship taken away from him). An account of the quotidian weirdness of Lviv. Stolen artwork for sale.

SOMEONE THE WMSM DOESN'T MENTION MUCH. General Michael Flynn, former head of the US Defense Intelligence Agency. Interview here. More here: he leads a revolt in the US intelligence structure.

TURKEY. Early this month a Turkish battle group moved into Iraq. Baghdad protested; Erdoğan pretended it had been invited; Ayatollah Sistani instructed Baghdad to get them out; Baghdad went to the UNSC; UNSC (USA is the current president) in no hurry. But, it is reported that some or all have left. Meanwhile, the US F-15s are leaving. A Turkish MP says ISIS received Sarin (GB) from Turkey (remember Ghouta? Almost went to war on that one.)

QUESTION. The Varshavyanka class submarine, Rostov-on-Don, fired cruise missiles from the Med. It is now (back?) in the Black Sea. Do the Turks know it (twice?) passed through? As far as I can discover, it could get through the shallowest part of the Straits and the sub is famously silent. One may be certain that Russia has the subsurface route thoroughly mapped and rehearsed.

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Ottawa, Canada Websites: ROPV, US-Russia, Russia Insider

RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP

HOW WILL YOUR LOCAL MSM OUTLET AVOID REPORTING THIS? Russian Defence Ministry briefing: ISIS is largely funded by oil smuggling, the oil goes into Turkey, Erdoğan and his family are involved (no evidence given but coming?). Thousands of trucks in and out of Turkey. The Russians claim to have cut the business in half. Watch it – the lines of tanker trucks – hundreds and hundreds – have to be seen to be believed. And we're supposed to believe that the all-seeing US satellite system missed them? Actually, here are the US excuses for not hitting them. As a reminder that the WMSM doesn't tell you very much, here's the former head of the US DIA saying that the White House made a "wilful decision" to ignore warnings about ISIS. Of course, given the Paris wakeup call, the WMSM just might report this. Watch and see. BUT – and a big but: see below.

ON THE OTHER HAND. The Russian videos purport to show hits on oil storage tanks. But look at this screenshot from the briefing: the upper left and upper right look like grain silos or something while the lower left looks like a water purification plant. This, on the other hand, does look like an oil refinery: note the flames and black smoke you'd expect from a petroleum fire. (Thanks to Petri Krohn for noticing what I did not). Blowing up anything that's round and claiming it's oil storage somewhat weakens the Russian case. To put it mildly. The lines of trucks are compelling, though. Note Turkish flag at 0:28.

PUTIN SPEECH. Annual address to the Federal Assembly. Haven't gone through it in detail; much on terrorism of course but also the usual emphasis on domestic matters – especially food production. The words "Ukraine", "Kiev" and "Donbass" do not appear in it. Which is rather interesting, isn't it?

CRIMEA. Finding their food blockade ineffective at persuading Crimeans to return to the embrace of Kiev, Right Sector and "Tatar nationalists" blew up power lines into Crimea and drove off repair crews. Fortunately there was no catastrophic aftereffect on nuclear power plants in Ukraine. However, Moscow foresaw this and has been building electricity connections. The first bit is up and running and 80-90% of the demand should be covered by the end of the month. The full provision is scheduled for May. Meanwhile, here is a video showing the progress of the bridge.

SOROS. The Prosecutor General's Office put George Soros' Open Society Foundations and Open Society Institute Assistance Foundation on the list of undesirable NGOs. This observer argues that Moscow lacks self confidence. I disagree: he and others managed to blow up Ukraine which was pretty placid in the 1990s; all societies have fissures which can be pried open with enough money and effort.

HOLLANDE. He met Putin and here are the joint press statements. Seems to me that he's pretty close to Putin's strategy: "France is ready and willing to work with Russia... common objective, which is to fight terrorist groups, above all ISIS... agreed... step up the exchange of intelligence... intensify strikes against ISIS and coordinate them... make sure that our air strikes concentrate on the Islamic State and terrorist groups." On the other hand: "it goes without saying that Assad does not have any role to play in the future of his country." But, step by step: politicians seem to be unable to openly change their minds.

SYRIA. Several sources claim that Russia is preparing another airfield for use. More S-400s?

TULSI GABBARD. Check her out: a refreshing change in the war-crazed wasteland of US politics. She's co-sponsoring a bill to stop the "illegal" war on Assad.

DIA SCANDAL. To summarise: the former head is criticising the US Administration's policy; 50 analysts have complained their reports on ISIS were modified to look more optimistic; even the NYT notices.

TURKEY. Moscow's response will cost Turkey billions. Putin's executive order: tourism, trade and employment greatly cut. Turk Stream has just been suspended. S-400 SAMs are now in place in Syria (and Armenia?) and Russian fighters will carry AAMs and probably soon have fighter cover. What Ankara had better not hope is that Moscow "sells" some S-400s to Damascus, "trains" some operators who shoot down the Turkish aircraft that routinely fly into Syria. I do not believe that Washington put Ankara up to shooting it down. First the luke-warm response from NATO and second the absence of monovoiced WMSM coverage. Kerry has told Ankara to seal the border to stop the oil smuggling and Carter said the majority of Turkish strikes in Syria hit Kurds. Not, I think, full-throated support.

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Ottawa, Canada Websites: ROPV, US-Russia, Russia Insider

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Patrick Armstrong

RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP

by Patrick Armstrong

PARIS. The usual "solidarity" theatre. None of this means a thing and won't until we start to hear about the role of Wahhabism in all this, where it comes from and who spreads it; Daesh's Turkey supply route; that Washington and its allies cannot support jihadists in one place and expect to control them in another; that US neocons and "humanitarian interventionists" have produced a catastrophe; that Assad is an ally; that Iran is an ally; that Putin is not only an ally but knows what to do; that NATO is wasting its time "protecting" the Baltics from Russia and should either start really dealing with its members' security or give up. That will require an unprecedented amount of truth-telling. Danielle Ryan speculates on changes in the spin machine.

BUT MAYBE WE ARE HEARING... The CIA man who helped start it all reflects that Western intervention made it worse. A retired British general dares to say "Wahhabi". A former CIA deputy director thinks it's time to team up with Assad. Even the WaPo starts to get it – US-supplied missile destroys a US-supplied Humvee. Meanwhile, Russia's initiative gains support in Vienna.

PUTIN (ONCE AGAIN) EXPLAINS HIS POSITION. Take seven minutes and watch this video from about a year ago. And ask yourself: does this sound right or wrong? If you think it wrong, see Joe Biden agree with him: "[Our allies] poured hundreds of millions of dollars and tens, thousands of tons of weapons into anyone who would fight against Assad except that the people who were being supplied were Al Nusra and Al Qaeda and the extremist elements of jihadis coming from other parts of the world." (Text)

SYRIA. Obviously much is happening and the situation is very fluid. Russia stepped up operations against Daesh (the airliner was brought down by a bomb), targeting the oil business – videos of hits on storage tanks and trucks. Oil is a major source of Daesh funds; the US claims at last to be targeting it. (How could it not have seen those lines of trucks? But the US effort had been rather half-hearted.) Long-range aviation seems to be hitting infrastructure while (more) aircraft based in Syria concentrate on close air support to the Syrian Army (progressing). The big question is this: it is clear to the objective viewer that Russia is leading the attack; will Paris sign up with Moscow? Ideas that France "lead" the attacks are absurd: only Russia and the USA have "full service" militaries. Hollande is close to it: "In the next few days, I will therefore meet with President Obama and President Putin to unite our forces and to achieve a result which, at this point, has been put off for far too long." There's an opportunity because France is sending its carrier to the Med and Putin told the Navy to coordinate efforts with it. The two military heads have talked. Gilbert Doctorow, an astute observer, expects cooperation – there's huge popular support in France for it. Obama himself has taken a baby step towards the Putin position which was, again, upheld at Vienna. In short, Assad is not the problem, Daesh is. Even – even! – Clinton gets it.

REFUGEES. Syria's UN Ambassador says about a million refugees have returned since the Russian strikes, and associated Syrian army victories, began. A million? Well, anyway, it's clear that the solution to the European refugee/migrant problem is make the countries they came from worth living in again. More truth-telling will be required here: as I said before, the refugees come from places NATO "saved".

MESSING WITH THEIR MINDS. Russian TV "accidentally" showed a frightening Russian weapon. Or maybe it's just a piece of paper. The US will probably wind up spending billions and billions.

ECONOMY. More evidence that the Russian economy is turning around from Bloomberg.

ISOLATED PUTIN. The RI Humour Editor permits herself a small smile. Reality and polite diplomacy proves a powerful combination against fantasy and bluster.

SPORTS DOPING. Yes, no, maybe. But I am always suspicious when another anti-Russia campaign starts.

WHO'S IN CHARGE? 50 analysts from the US Defense Intelligence Agency have claimed their reports were manipulated to give "a more positive picture to the White House". The former DIA head says warnings were ignored. "Shellback" argues that the US int establishment does not support what the US Administration is doing. Are these catastrophes the work of amateurs and ignoramuses?

MH17. Remember that? Some Dutch media companies are suing the government to try and get more information. (In Dutch). By the way, US satellites detected the explosion of the Russian airliner, so what did they see with MH17 and why are we still not told what it was? You know why.

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Ottawa, Canada Websites: ROPV, US-Russia, Russia Insider

RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP

by Patrick Armstrong

RUSSIAN ATROCITIES!!!! The Americans attack an MSF hospital in Afghanistan and lie about it. (The lack of response to their demand for an international inquiry is "embarrassing" says MSF. Today's gruesome details.) The Saudis attack an MSF hospital in Yemen and lie about it. Negligible! Russians bombed four hospitals in Syria! no, it's seven! no, it's twelve! Sources? The usual GONGOs, including the ever-compliant Bellingcat, and mumbles from the State Department. Not ours, says MSF, nor ours says Red Cross. Oh well, push a new one out there. The usual tame sources shriek that Russia is killing civilians. That didn't work the last time – the fakery was swiftly exposed.

MORE PROPAGANDA. "This is the first time that Russia has publicly acknowledged that Assad may have to go" or "Changing stance?". Nope – unchanged since June 2012: "This issue has to be settled by the Syrians themselves." It's the West that's changed its line on "Assad must go": UK, USA. In fact, the recent Vienna declaration is everything Russia wanted: another Russian diplomatic victory (or victory for realism and coherence, I prefer to say). Which probably explains the rash of atrocity stories above.

WASHINGTON ON SYRIA. Incoherent. We are somehow supposed to think that US special forces have been put into Kurdish areas and will be supported from Turkey by US aircraft at the same time that Turkey is attacking the Kurds. How does that work? What does NATO do if the Turks bomb Americans? Does that make sense? Is your local MSM outlet asking any questions? No wonder Jordan has signed on to the Russian effort, Iraq is baulking and Afghanistan is interested in Russian help. Meanwhile Canada is pulling out of the US led effort and the UK is wobbly. Watch the video – do you see any plan there that you would want to follow? On the other hand, Washington has been trying to get rid of Assad for years. Why? "Barrel bombs" we're told.

MOSCOW ON SYRIA. Coherent. Assad visited Moscow – the whole thing was announced after he returned home. Contrary to silly claims from the NYT – "chilly reception"! – it's clear it was a series of important meetings with Russia's relevant leadership. Moscow's position is coherent and consistent: 1) to destroy the state structure of Syria will create chaos that only Daesh will profit from (vide Libya); 2) Assad is the legitimate head of the Syrian government; 3) if the Syrian people choose someone else in the future, Moscow will work with him; 4) support the forces on the ground that actually fight Daesh.

PLANE CRASH. The latest theory, based on the "black boxes", is that the crash was caused by an engine explosion. But what caused that?

IN CASE ANYONE HAD FORGOTTEN... Two ICBM tests and two SLBM tests this week.

RUSSIA INC. Has the Russian economy turned the corner? This astute observer argues that it might have.

UKRAINE. Local elections were held and I am amused to see that they have received little coverage in the WMSM. That's of course because they didn't go the way they were supposed to. A rather low turnout, even if you believe the official numbers. Yatsenyuk's party had so little support it didn't even run, Poroshenko's party didn't do that well, the nazis (in this case Svoboda. Don't like "nazi"? well see J8 for the European Parliament's view before fashions changed) did well in the west and the Opposition Bloc did well in the east. Better not have elections in Mariupol at all. The country is every bit as divided as it always has been. Are we in the Night of the Long Knives, or Thermidor? The security police have arrestedthe leader of one of the nazi battalions and there is a story that the leader of another has been taken. Some sort of investigation of the Maidan shootings is happening which could implicate another. Was there an assassination attempt on the Prosecutor General? Stay tuned. But I'm sure you will all be happier now AFP has told us President Poroshenko is richer than before.

GEORGIA. There is a phone recording of Saakashvili plotting a coup in Georgia; Tbilisi has opened a criminal investigation. PM Garibashvili is not amused. The recording is apparently real although Saakashvili blusters that "the Russians" touched it up.

MEANWHILE, PIVOTING TO ASIA. Washington did its sailpast. Watch this short video of the Chinese response; do you think Beijing is joking? I don't. Something to think about: a Chinese attack submarine closely followed a US carrier last month.

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Ottawa, Canada Websites: ROPV, US-Russia, Russia Insider

RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP

by Patrick Armstrong

TIME FOR A RE-THINK, ACROSS THE BOARD, DON'T YOU AGREE? Ukraine hasn't turned out well for anybody, has it? Libya hasn't either. The longest war gets longer. More war in Iraq. Do all the refugees come from places where NATO has been active; or just almost all of them? The West greatly underestimated Russia's military power. (I remember writing briefing notes in the 1990s warning that while it might seem to be a lot of fun to kick Russia around when it was weak, it wouldn't always be weak.) Former US defense secretary says the US training program in Syria was "nuts". European Commission chief says "we can't let our relationship with Russia be dictated by Washington". Taliban surprises the Americans; Russia surprises the Americans. Washington hopes Iraq will not sign on to the Russian effort; too late. "Another A2/AD bubble". Intelligence agencies rebel. The war party's response? "get tough on Putin". Time to man up and admit that it's not weakness, it's policy: everything the West/NATO/USA has done in the last decade has made things worse.

BUSY. If you look at his schedule, you can see that Putin is constantly meeting with people in and around Syria. There was a lot of preparation. Indeed, it seems that only Washington was kept out of the loop.

OIL AND GAS. Russia reports enormous finds in the Arctic.

BRIDGE TO CRIMEA. Moving along smartly. Video of the first section.

CRUISE MISSILES. In the INF Treaty the USA insisted that sea-launched cruise missiles (of which it had a monopoly) be excluded. Monopoly no more. Here's a perceptive article on the Russian system and a video of an imaginative deployment in shipping containers; note the slogan at the end "Every state has the right to independence". The US carrier battle group left the Gulf which may or may not be related to learning that it was in range of some insignificant ship in the Caspian Sea. Of all places.

WESTERN VALUES™. Should US military personnel be found responsible for the Kunduz hospital attack, "it's a safe bet" that there will be no involvement of the ICC. On the other hand, Washington supports an effort to have Syria be indicted by the ICC. And, now, the Drone Papers.

MH17 REPORT. Not impressed. My principal observation: DSB's direction of attack only possible if damage to port wing and engine ignored – as it was. Note the missing radar data from Ukraine and NATO. Identification of Buk depends on three or four particles. I call it a "limited hangout".

GHOUTA CW ATTACK. Two Turkish parliamentarians come within an ace of saying that the sarin gas came from Turkey as part of a "false flag" operation. Will your local media outlet report this?

UKRAINE. I have always thought that what Moscow wants from Ukraine can be simply expressed: a country that pays its gas bills on time, is not a NATO launch pad and doesn't have a crisis every five years that keeps everybody in Moscow up all night. In short, prosperous, neutral, stable. I agree (as I usually do) with Alexander Mercouris's argument expressed here that it's moved a lot closer to that end. The latest "Normandy format" talks have hammered some points home that were always in the Minsk agreement but Kiev had ignored; it appears Paris and Berlin have woken up to their dilemma. Kiev must talk to Donetsk to work out some real autonomy and it has to rein in the quasi-independent militia groups. More attacks are just more defeats. Time has been bought: I believe that Putin & Co understand – or hope, at least – that Ukrainians are not really represented by the corrupt plutocrats and nazi freaks now running the place and is playing for time: sooner or later the junta will go and then Moscow will be closer to the Ukraine it wants. Which is, of course the Ukraine that rational people in Europe should also want. (There are already a couple of million Ukrainian refugees in Russia, what happens if hundreds of thousands want to get into Europe?) A recent Ukrainian poll shows slightly more people want to begin big protests than did in 2013. Meanwhile, we learn that Kiev is starting an investigation into "the Heavenly Hundred". Gordon Hahn speculates on why Kiev would be entertaining the possibility that the killings were done by the "Maidan defenders" and not – as legend says – by Yanukovych. 16,000 deserters out there, many with weapons. Worse to come, I fear.

MISTRALS. Russia is "satisfied". Egypt (Egypt? What's it need an expeditionary force for?) will be buying them. Hollande hopes to sell more ships to Russia. What do you bet that, after a decent interval, Egypt sells them to Russia? If so, Poland and the Baltics will have apoplexy.

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Ottawa, Canada Websites: ROPV, US-Russia, Russia Insider

RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP

by Patrick Armstrong

10 DAYS THAT CHANGED THE WORLD. They did, don't you think? Gilbert Doctorow describes the interlocking parts of Moscow's actions: coalition assembled, the UNGA, the military moves, the demonstration that Russia has full-capacity armed forces, Ukraine.

SYRIA. Clearly the big story.Others have commented: I recommend Dyer, Escobar and Buchanan. But there are plenty more. All I have to add are a few observations. Re the "Russian invasion" of Ukraine and grainy photos of combine harvesters or whatever somewhere or other, this is what real satellite photos look like: colour, detail, precision. Russia's intervention has exploded the US fantasy of "moderate opposition" (but weren't there only four or five of them?) and its incoherent two-horse scheme (watch McCain lump "barrel bombs" and beheaders together as if Assad and ISIS were the same at 6:51). As to Russia being "doomed to fail", its strikes are coordinated with the forces on the ground that are actually fighting ISIS; Syrian forces have begun an offensive. And with Iraq too. Egypt as well. Israel even? Is Iran coming? There are suggestions that both Iraq and Afghanistan would welcome Russian assistance because ISIS has only grown stronger in the year of the US-led operation, despite its claims. Moscow prepared the ground, did everything legally, assembled a coalition and moved quickly and decisively. Not Putin vs Obama, or "standing up to Putin", but a direct challenge to the New American Century crowd; "the most powerful, good and honorable nation... the exceptional nation": "Do you at least realise now what you have done?" (Вы хоть понимаете теперь, что вы натворили?).

WESTERN VALUES™. No sooner had the US and its allies complained about "civilian casualties" (on faked evidence) than US forces struck a hospital in Afghanistan. The American story is now in its fourth iteration but still no response to the three main charges – that they knew where the hospital was, that there was no firing from it, that the hospital was repeatedly struck after MSF had called on the US authorities to stop. Meanwhile, on Russia's "violation of Turkish airspace", look at this screen from a Western source: the green are NATO aircraft in Syria. Whose violations there? Turkey has been violating Syria airspace for some time. And here's a Deutsche Wellereport on the ISIS supply route from Turkey.

PAST AND PRESENT. Wikileaks tells us that Qadaffi was willing to talk but Clinton was not willing to listen. The former Defense Intelligence Agency head says the Administration made a "wilful decision" to ignore its warnings about the growth of ISIS; nor does he believe the "moderate opposition" exists.

INTENTIONS. Don't know what Russia's intentions are? Stop speculating and read Putin's speech. A clue: "we can no longer tolerate the current state of affairs in the world" (что терпеть складывающееся в мире положение уже невозможно). He's been saying this since the famous Munich speech and now he's found a time and place to act. He seems to have a lot of support in the West, too – see below. Read Xi's speech as well, not as blunt, but the same message.

THE WORM TURNS. Read the comments on this story, this story, this story and this story. The first two condemn Russia's actions, the second two approve. But, in all cases the readers' comments are overwhelmingly supportive of Russia's attacks. I have suspected for a while – why else all the talk about "Putin trolls", Putin's "information war" and the closing of comments sections? – that an increasing proportion of the Western audience sees through the spin and propaganda. Syria may burst the dam. The last words go to Paul Craig Roberts: "By telling the truth at a time of universal deceit, Putin committed a revolutionary act".

RT. Remember when RT was "Putin's weapon of mass deception" and a challenge that had to be countered? Well now it fakes its numbers and is insignificant. Hard to keep up with the story, isn't it?

RUSSIA INC. I highly recommend this from the perceptive Mr Mercouris on how Russian economy measurements miss something important. While the USA undeniably leads his super trio, how much longer can it with so much of its manufacturing out-sourced?

CORRUPTION. Is a big problem in Russia and no one hides it. I've said before that I'll believe a serious anti-corruption effort is really happening when someone in an office next to Putin's or Medvedev's is taken away. It almost happened with Serdyukov but he seems to have got away with it. Ditto the Luzhkovs. Well, maybe something more significant than busting traffic cops is beginning. We'll see.

© Patrick Armstrong Analysis, Ottawa, Canada Websites: ROPV, US-Russia, Russia Insider

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Patrick Armstrong

RUSSIA IS NOT THE ENEMY

 

BY STEPHEN KINZER   SEPTEMBER 20, 2015

 

THE BOSTON GLOBE

 

REAL ENEMIES ARE a threat to any country, but imagined enemies can be even more dangerous. They sap resources, provoke needless conflicts, and divert attention from true challenges. The United States has constructed such a fantasy by turning Russia into an enemy.

 

Our current campaign against Russia was set off by what some in Washington call its “aggression” against neighboring Ukraine. Russia’s decision to aid the Assad regime in Syria has also angered us. The true reasons for anti-Russia sentiment, though, lie deeper.

 

Most leading figures in the American political and security establishments grew up during the Cold War. They spent much of their lives believing that the Antichrist lived in Moscow. Today they speak as if the Cold War never ended.

 

MOSCOW––ANDREI KORTUNOV, RIAC

On June 2, 2015 we 20 American travelers split into groups of four and traveled by metros or taxis with student guides to different parts of Moscow.  Our videographer Mel Van Dusen, Merlin Miller, organizer of a new political party from Tennessee, Charles Heberle, retired military who worked at the Pentagon and NATO and I went to see an old acquaintance with whom I'd kept up for over 30 years. 

Back in 1984 a group of us got an appointment to Moscow's  U.S.-Canada Institute, a prestigious 'think tank' that was considered the most liberal in the Soviet Union. To our surprise a quite young, blonde-haired young man introduced himself as Andrei Kortunov. He was decades younger than others in this respected institute.  Obviously bright and comfortable in his position, he seemed warmly predisposed to all things American unlike others we had met. Andrei was clearly interested in discussing issues off and on with citizen diplomats from the U.S.  During the Gorbachev and Yeltsin years I watched his career take him to positions of responsibility wherein he remained the same logical, open, helpful personality he exhibited from the beginning. 

Today Andrei is the Director General of the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC) and the President of the New Eurasia Foundation (FNE). He is still down to earth, modest and as hesitant-to-be-sharp as was the fair-haired young man we met at around age 20. One thing noted this time, he seems weary from dealing with the heavy issues of his position––yet is as always the consummate gentleman.  Mel pushed him with questions that finally brought out his feelings on a number of issues related to the US-Russia relationship.

RUSSIA IS NOT THE ENEMY

By Stephen Kinzer   SEPTEMBER 20, 2015

THE BOSTON GLOBE

REAL ENEMIES ARE a threat to any country, but imagined enemies can be even more dangerous. They sap resources, provoke needless conflicts, and divert attention from true challenges. The United States has constructed such a fantasy by turning Russia into an enemy.

Our current campaign against Russia was set off by what some in Washington call its “aggression” against neighboring Ukraine. Russia’s decision to aid the Assad regime in Syria has also angered us. The true reasons for anti-Russia sentiment, though, lie deeper.

Most leading figures in the American political and security establishments grew up during the Cold War. They spent much of their lives believing that the Antichrist lived in Moscow. Today they speak as if the Cold War never ended.

MOSCOW––POZNER: UKRAINE, CRIMEA, JOURNALISM, PUTIN

 

Hi Friends,

Our group spent a couple of hours with Vladimir Pozner while in Moscow.  In case you may not know him, he is and has been, Russia's #1 TV Icon for about 50 years. As always, he was cordial, frank and fascinating.

 

I extracted a 30-minute piece out of a longer version to give you what is probably the most salient part of the interview.  It follows:

 

 Vladimir Pozner   Ukraine, Crimea, Journalism and Putin

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RG2beCe2AUw

 

 

 

In case you wish to view the longer version, it can be clicked on next.

 

 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RFBqdeKtlFc

 

This piece is about an hour and half and contains the above 30 minute extract.

 

MOSCOW: FROM AIRPORT TO RED SQUARE

 

Friends,

 Our 25 YouTubes are now ready.  You will receive the URLs, one or two at a time, with the hope you will study them and get a "feel" for each Russian city we visited.  We didn't intend flashy, fast paced, "knock-your-socks-off" travelogues. Our intention is to give you an actual sense of Russia's people, streets, sidewalks, metros, culture and what motivates them as individuals and collectively.  Note that Russians dress the same as we (China makes both of our countries' apparel) and they drive the same makes and models of cars that we drive.

 This first Youtube shows Moscow where we landed. It spans our first nine actual hours on ground, during which over two hours of video was shot––and the footage has been reduced to this 13-minute impression of Russia's largest city.  Mel Van Dusen, our pro bono videographer, was seeing Russia for the first time.  He is the editor and voiceover for the series (with a little assistance from me). In addition he spent two months pro bono sifting through 60 hours of footage to provide a glimpse into today's Russia.

 

CUBAN MISSILE CRISIS IN REVERSE?

Cuban Missile Crisis in Reverse?

by Craig K. Comstock

published by OpEdNews on August 20, 2015

          Whatever one thinks of Putin, it's fair to ask whether the US is on the path to risking a Cuban missile crisis in reverse. What if Ukraine invites NATO to station nuclear missiles on its territory or conduct "war games" near the Russian heartland or engage in other military activities? Didn't the very long and extensive US involvement in Vietnam start with "trainers"? 

What is now the country of Ukraine was once a province of the USSR. And some parts of Ukraine are closer to Moscow than Cuba to Washington, D.C. When Khrushchev shipped nuclear rockets to Castro's island, and they were discovered by a US surveillance plane, it set off a crisis that has been called the most dangerous time in human history. 

During the famous crisis, JFK and his "executive committee" knew that Soviet strategic rockets were emplaced in Cuba and potentially armed with nuclear warheads. What they apparently didn't know was that the Soviets had also sent tactical nuclear warheads to Cuba to combat a possible U.S. invasion of that island. 

GRANDMASTER FOR RUSSIA AND AMERICA

http://chess-news.ru

June 22, 2015

Vladimir Putin, America's Reluctant Foe

Monday, 22.06.2015 18:16

By Lev Alburt, Grandmaster 

Chess player for Russia and for America

 

Editorial introduction

 

Lev Alburt will celebrate his 70th birthday in August. His life was divided in two: the first half passed in the Soviet Union, the second is going on in the USA. In his first homeland, the Odessian GM achieved many successes: he was 3-time Ukrainian Champion, a winner and a prize-winner of numerous international competitions, a repeated participant of the USSR Championship finals which were by then strongest tournaments in the world. In 1979, Alburt, as the saying went, "chose freedom", deciding not to come back from abroad. He has settled down in New York city and has been living there from then on.

 As Alburt moved to the USA, he became one of the top American Grandmasters, winning the U.S. Championship three times and representing this country many times at the Olympiads. He is still into chess, being not only a successful coach but also a prolific writer. He is the author of many chess books on various topics, which are being sold in prestigious American and European book shops and could occupy nearly a bookshelf if taken together.

 Apart from that, Albert has devoted a lot of his time to fighting Soviet communism. He spent his first-earned US money on a trip to Washington D.C. for the Sakharov Hearings. Whenever he got a chance, he provided his chess colleagues coming to the West with anti-Soviet literature. He participated in different rallies and forums, knew Bukowski and Amalrik, was in correspondence with Solzhenitsyn. He was also a member of organizations that made no secret of their intentions to change the Soviet regime.

MAKE THE WORLD SAFE!: A NEW CCI PROGRAM

Dear Friends,

 

For the past two years (actually the past 32 years), I've struggled to create ways to increase understanding and decrease misunderstanding between the two nuclear superpowers: the U.S. and Russia.  Why?––to offset the odds of a global nuclear war.  We thought our work at CCI was finished in the mid-2000s!  But politically these two nations are back at it again in 2015: building new missile systems, posting them on the others' borders, flying supersonic jets equipped with megatons of destruction every day––by false alarm, accident or intention, the entire world is going through an extremely dangerous era at present.  And these facts are getting very little exposure in American mainstream media.

 

What can we concerned and intelligent citizens do, if anything?

 

CCI's single most effective program over the years was SMMA (Soviets Meet Middle America!), a two-year, first-ever venture that brought many hundreds of Soviet citizens to 264 American cities where they were home hosted and participated in talks with Americans in Rotary Clubs, schools, universities, libraries, book clubs, businesses, churches, synagogues, TV stations, radio talk shows and newspaper offices. They even had evening discussion opportunities in homes.  The Soviets slept in American bedrooms, ate breakfast over kitchen tables, discussed their countries, differences and similarities, in addition to local and international politics. Both shared their dreams and hopes for their futures and committed to work in their countries to dispel erroneous misconceptions and to build human bridges between them.  And they did!  Russians went home and became purveyors of positive stories and warm information about America.

 

KISSINGER: BREAKING RUSSIA HAS BECOME THE OBJECTIVE FOR THE US"

Former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger has hit out at American and European Ukraine policy, saying it ignores Russia’s relationship with its neighbor, and has called for cooperation between the White House and the Kremlin on the issue.

“Breaking Russia has become an objective [for US officials] the long-range purpose should be to integrate it,” the 92-year-old told The National Interest in a lengthy interview for the policy magazine’s anniversary that touched on most of the world’s most pertinent international issues.“If we treat Russia seriously as a great power, we need at an early stage to determine whether their concerns can be reconciled with our necessities.”

The diplomat, who is most famous for serving in the Nixon administration, and controversially being awarded the 1973 Nobel Peace Prize, for negotiating the Vietnam ceasefire, accused the West of failing to recognize the historical context in which the fallout occurred between Moscow and Kiev.

Soft Power: Russian Foreign Policy

Friends, increasingly American experts like Carnegie's David Speedie are speaking out in more moderate voices regarding Russia's behaviors and intentions on the international scene -- this is welcome relief after the heyday of half truths, groundless accusations and ill will generated recently by American mainstream media. May their numbers multiply.  I can certainly verify that one gets this sense from Russian people throughout the regions we visited in June. They were amazingly non-hostile when discussing US-Russia relations given that their purchasing power has been halved by the sanctions. They have a growing sense of themselves, their history and culture …. and Russia's ability to survive and eventually thrive within a milieu of classical norms.  Sharon 

 

"Soft Power": The Values that Shape Russian Foreign Policy

DAVID C. SPEEDIE  |  U.S. Global Engagement  |  JULY 30, 2015

This article is in anticipation of an upcoming Carnegie Council project on Russian "soft power" and values that shape foreign policy.

In the increasingly frigid environment of U.S.-Russia relations, much attention is given to what may be seen as Russia's strategic "interests." (Of course, much of the policymaking class in the West seems to suggest that Russia is entitled to no "interests" whatsoever.) Of at least equal significance for understanding Russian attitudes, however, is a grasp of the values, the moral framework for Russia's foreign policy.

A valuable resource for this understanding is found in a recent article, "Russia's Orthodox Soft Power," by the University of Rhode Island scholar Nicolai Petro, who explores the "symphonic relationship" between the Russian Orthodox Church and the Russian state and the manner in which they both utilize the term Russky mir, or Russian World. For the discussion herein of what this entails, we are indebted to Professor Petro.

As Petro observes, the term Russky mir has been wrongly interpreted by some Western analysts as the "perverse intersection" between the Russian state and the Russian Orthodox Church; in reality, the term is employed differently by each party. Where the state uses it as a tool for expanding Russia's cultural and political influence, the Church views it as a spiritual concept linked to God's objective for the rebuilding of a Holy Rus. The relationship between the two provides a popular and definable framework for Russian foreign policy. Values play a significant role in policy formulation and, throughout modern history, three constants dictate how Russia responds to Western actions: sovereignty, capability to defend that sovereignty, and loyalty to those who share Russia's sense of honor. (The 2014 conflict Ukraine exacerbated the perceived values gap between the West and Russia, yet Russia claims it occupies the higher moral ground by defending its core values of honor in the context of the unique historical, religious, and cultural bonds with Ukraine.)

In summary: The significance of religion in Russian life allows the state to garner huge social capital from having the blessing of the Orthodox Church, and likewise the Church benefits from the relationship by disseminating its message of Christianity worldwide via Russian foreign policy. For the state, Russky Mir is a political/cultural tool for strengthening domestic stability, worldwide status, and influence in neighboring states. For the Church, it is a religious foundation essential for reversing the secularization of society (which it sees as an unwelcome evolution already well underway in the West).

RUSSIAN FEDERATION SITREP

by Patrick Armstrong

MH17. Before you agree that Russia's veto of the UN tribunal idea is evidence that Putindunnit, you should know two things. First, there already is a UNSC resolution calling for "full, thorough and independent international investigation" and "those responsible for this incident be held to account". It is UNSC Resolution 2166 and dates from a year ago. Who needs another? Second, that one of those calling for the new resolution – Australia's Julie Bishop – condemned Russia a year ago for refusing to accept responsibility for the shootdown. Clearly a kangaroo court (as it were) was intended. As we have seen before with Milosevic and Qaddafi. Rather than stunts, Washington should first show us its "mountain of evidence" as a group of retired US intelligence professionals demand.

SANCTIONS. The Russian counter sanctions on food are having a beneficial effect on local producers as this Austrian TV report shows. Here's a visitor's report of what he found in St Petersburg and environs. Here's what Americans are told: "Je suis Charlie et je suis fromage". Costs to the EU are still being estimated: Belgium US$500 million; Germany €600-800 million; overall maybe €5 billion. Or even €100 billion when everything is calculated. In light of Stratfor's observation that Washington is determined to keep Germany and Russia apart, one wonders which Washington wants to hurt. For the effect on Russia, Reuters reports the IMF's take: "The fund estimated the immediate effect... had been to wipe between 1pc and 1.5pc off GDP, rising to 9pc over the next few years... also forecast "weak" economic growth of around 1.5pc annually in the medium term." Does that make sense to you? Or is it an estimate of what might have been?At any rate, however you spin or measure it, this is not "tatters".

Slim but Hopeful News re Ukraine

Friends, below is somewhat hopeful news from Ukraine.  Whether it will materialize, who knows?  Former Ukrainian Prime Minister Azarov announced the formation of the Committee for Salvation of Ukraine.  Former Rada deputy Vladimir Oleinik has been nominated as president of the Committee. It sounds too good to be real, but given the state of Ukraine after the Maidan-turned-disaster, it might just gather traction with numbers of Ukrainians (other than the neo-nazi forces in Western Ukraine). Let's hope for even limited acceptance by the Ukrainians.   S.

Former Ukrainian lawmaker says Kiev pushed away Crimea and Donbas

MOSCOW, August 3. /TASS/. Verkovna Rada former deputy Vladimir Oleinik, who was nominated for president by Ukraine Salvation Committee, has said Monday that current authorities are to blame for losing Crimea. 

"Unfortunately, we lost Crimea because of criminal authorities that ignited ethnic strife and pushed away Crimea and Ukraine's south-east by staging a coup," Oleinik told a press conference in Moscow. 

KERRY'S NEXT CHALLENGE

By Katrina vanden Heuvel July 21 

The nuclear agreement with Iran provides ample proof of Secretary of State John F. Kerry’s remarkable commitment and skill in waging diplomacy. In an era when the Pentagon dominates our foreign policy and military options are too often trotted out as first responses, he has resuscitated the United States’ power to lead, pressure and negotiate, a capacity too often denigrated as “soft power.”

No good deed goes unpunished. His reward for this is not only a pitched battle at home with hawks in both parties intent on torpedoing the Iran deal, but also what will be an even fiercer struggle with higher stakes: fending off those intent on escalating a face-off with Russia over Ukraine into a new Cold War. Once more, Kerry must preserve our real security interests from those recklessly brandishing America’s military prowess. 

The voices calling for a new Cold War — or worse — with Russia are growing louder. “If you want to talk about a nation that could pose an existential threat to the United States, I’d have to point to Russia,” said Gen. Joseph F. Dunford Jr., at Senate hearings on his nomination to be the new chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Dunford listed Russia as “the greatest threat” to U.S. national security, which will surely startle those old enough to remember 9/11. Even as the United States announced that it was considering training Ukraine’s regular forces, Dunford recommended shipping U.S. weapons to the Kiev regime, another step toward a proxy war with Russia that President Obama has thus far resisted.

Sharon covered in Huffington Post for first time -- you can help!

Friends,  the link here will probably have to be put in your browser.  I would appreciate you reading it -- it's the first time I've been carried in Huffington Post -- which is probably one of the best mainstream blogs.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/craig-k-comstock/on-the-ground-in-russia_b_7875948.html

Secondly, I would greatly appreciate it if you would write Huffington and say that you agree with or thank them for printing this, anything that is positive.

Why?  Craig Comstock the writer said that they pay attention to the comments -- and will post more if they get a good selection of people to sign on and read.  

Craig and I have hopes to write monthly or more often and try to get different and more truthful points of view out on Russia and the US-Russia relationship. 

This is one way of doing People's Diplomacy! Tell the truth! And see if it resonates!

If you are going to read and write in, please do quickly while the article is still fairly warm!

Many thanks!  Sharon